- signs of selling seen at higher levels
March 31, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- yesterday nifty gained 2.3% and today lost 1%
- AD has been flat for both the days
- indicated 1-2 days earlier about behaviour in circled areas
- now interesting observation
- the bounce back has always led to a fast rally
- ideally market should have closed today nicely in positive
- instead they opened gap down and closed within body of prev candle
March 29, 2021
March 27, 2021
BANKNIFTY weekly charts
- signs of buying seen at lower levels
- prev resistance/ top of 2019/2020 provides support now
- weekly close below 32400 will be negative
- note: on daily charts, trend is down
NIFTY weekly charts
- signs of buying at lower levels
- for confirmation, weekly close above 15000 will be great
- support 14000
Is the correction over?
- big red bars followed by gapup openings have led to more gains in the next few days
- see circled areas in the chart
- will history repeat this time?
March 26, 2021
Mindset of a successful trader - thread by @kirubaakaran
A small thread on Mindset of a successful trader. What differentiates best traders from the bad ones? Why 95% of the traders don’t make money? Trading is an unpredictable game, how could one win in that?
Many people think some magical strategy or indicators is all they need to be successful at Trading. But what really goes in the minds of a successful trader? Professor Hichman Benjelloun did a research on this.
Successful traders have poker face. If you talk to successful traders or chat with them, you can’t figure out if they are happy or sad. Having good time or bad time.
For them making money or losing money is same thing, as they say a good trader feels great after a good trade, but a great trader feels NOTHING after a great trade. They control their emotions not only in trading but also outside their trading life. They are highly disciplined
Whether they are making money or losing money, they continue with their daily routine, going to gym, cycling etc they don’t skip it because of a losing trade. It doesn’t affect them. They have probability mind set. What does that mean?
Just because there is a continues Tails in flip of coin doesn't mean occurrence of Tails will be more, if you flip 10000 time, you will realise heads 50% tails 50%. They the know the probability of success or failure, and they believe in law of large numbers.
Successful traders keep doing the same boring thing over and over dozen times without worrying about the next trading outcome, bcoz they know over the long run probability is in their side. But 95% of the traders don’t do this.
Professor Hichman Benjelloun interviewed one guy who told him that he wanted to be the next #WarrenBuffet and if hired he said he can give his 100%. Becoming the next WarrenBuffet, next Bill Gates, next Steve Jobs is highly impossible. Why?
Because these people are called as outliers in statistical terms. When Bill Gates was asked “How he became richest person in the world?” He replied Am just lucky. This is true fact. You do good, work hard, have realistic expectations to succeed but don’t try to become next Gates
It’s not success that is pure luck, it’s the extent of the success that is pure luck. By doing exactly the same thing over and over again, statistics will be in your favour. That’s why they say “Good trading is Boring”. That’s the actual secret behind Successful traders mind.
March 25, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 1.5% in negative at 14324
- eventually nifty did manage to break and close below 14500
- AD was 1:5
- next support is 13500
Will nifty bottom around 14000?
Wave 5 of #Nifty in progress & objective is around 13950-14000
— Zafar Shaikh (@InvesysCapital) March 25, 2021
If we get there in next 2-3 sessions, expect decent Pullback from 14k
But 14850-14900 is likely to be strong hurdle for whole of April Series .We may spend most of Apr series in 14000-14800 Range as per Trend Model https://t.co/cz9wyMt6ol
March 24, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- nifty closed 1.8% in negative at 14550
- AD was 1:3
- note that this is the 3rd time nifty is retesting 14500
- we had strong buying near this level few days ago and
- today we are back to 14500
- I expect this level to break shortly.
- for any bullishness, nifty must sustain above 15000
March 22, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- markets closed flat at 14736
- AD was 1:1
- trading range was narrow at 14760-14600
- trading above 14760 tomorrow can be positive for markets
- support 14500 resistance 15000
March 19, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- markets close 1.3% in positive at 14744
- AD was flat
- the region from 14450-14500 is a strong support area
- though this broke intraday, strong buying took nifty back into congestion zone
- a nice bullish piercing pattern was formed.
- in the past, such candlesticks have led to strong rallies
- let us see if history repeats
March 18, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- today nifty closed 1% in negative at 14558
- AD was 1:3
- with today's fall. nifty has corrected almost 800 points in 6 days
- now we have very strong support around 14450-14500
- close below this will create a sell signal as per my indicator on daily charts
- note on 18th JAN nifty was at 14433 and
- today on 18th MAR, it is at 14558
March 17, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- today nifty closed 1.3% in negative at 14721
- AD was 1:5
- very good support around 14450 spot
- till this is defended bulls should be happy
Sell signal on BANKNIFTY
- index closed below its recent swing low
- reversal level is 37500
- next support 32500
March 16, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- nifty closed marginally in the red at 14910
- AD was flat
- there was no follow thru buying and nifty could not sustain near the highs
- trading range was narrow
- crucial support/ swing low 14450
March 15, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in negative at 14929
- the index was down almost 250 points before a late recovery
- AD was 1:2 .... not bad
- VIX actually dropped towards the end... positive for bulls
- 14 day ATR is now 260 points
March 12, 2021
Cumulative Open Interest at record highs
The build-up in March has been phenomenal pic.twitter.com/I4UIXpbUt2
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy) March 11, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- today markets closed 1% in negative at 15031
- AD was 2:3
- markets were up initially but sold up 300+ points intraday
- this has formed a huge bearish engulfing bar
- selloff happened near all time highs
- in twitter, there have been many posts showing record OI in nifty and banknifty
- this has lead to speculation of a significant top being formed this year
March 10, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- markets rangebound for almost a month
- on 10th FEB, nifty was at 15106
- and one month later, today nifty is at 15174
- a net move of only 70 points in 30 days
- today AD was 5:4
- and after a long time, both FII and DII figures were positive
- VIX also dropped 8% to 20.75.
- swing low around 14450 spot
March 8, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- today markets closed flat at 14956
- AD was flat
- past few weeks, markets are very rangebound
- intraday signals are failing/ getting whipsawed
- this is normal in any rangebound market
US Dollar Index chart
- this index has started trending up
- this index and equity markets are correlated negatively
- but not 100% of the time.
- so mentally one should just be cautious and be alert to trend reversal in nifty
CNX 500 charts
- this is the chart of nifty 500 stocks
- here trend is clearly up
- but some rising wedge can be seen
- immediate support region is around 12000
- below this, trend reversal is possible
March 5, 2021
NIFTY EOD charts
- markets is trading sideways past few weeks
- long position got stopped out few days ago (5/ 10 bar low)
- swing reversal level is now 14450 spot
Major top in sight?
Whenever such phenomenon occurs, a major top or bottom is usually created in far month.
— Gautam Mazumdar (@gautam_icma) March 4, 2021
I am generally a little humble in posting my views. However, mark my words, we will revisit this tweet on expiry of May series.
Plan your trades well.#MidnightOil studies
March 3, 2021
General update on markets
- past few weeks, I have been very erratic in posting market outlook charts
- reasons range from general boredom, no interaction/ responses from site visitors etc
- my methods/ indicators are anyway well known so more inputs from me may not help
- importantly, many people have just missed this rally
- when you miss a rally and wait for a correction which never comes,
- then the rally becomes the most hated rally
- we may be witnessing something similar this time.
- note that index has doubled from its recent lows in less than a year
- it this is not a bull run, then I don't know what can be called one
- note AD ratio past few weeks
- very bullish even on flat days
- huge number of stocks making 52week highs or at all time highs
- note corrections are normal and healthy in any market
- a 20% correction will mean a correction to 12000 levels
- if this happens, just buy
- swing low on chart 13600-14600
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