- not able to sustain above 24000
- resistance 25000
October 31, 2020
NIFTY monthly charts
- signs of selling visible around 12000 levels
- note mean reversion to 11000 for 3 years
- nifty at 11000 for last 3 Septembers
NIFTY weekly charts
- trend is up
- sideways movement seen for 3 weeks now
- all activity mostly within range of the most recent green bar
- support 11500 res 12000-12500
October 30, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- nifty closed 0.2% in negative at 11642
- this is slightly below the low of the big red bar
- not giving too much importance to this as
- the region of 11500-11600 is a good support zone
- AD was flat
- option writing clues suggest 11500 is likely to hold
- so does this mean bias is bullish?
October 29, 2020
NIFTY 15 min charts
- today's rangebound market stops out any positional short trade
- net long above 11750 F and short below 11600 F
NIFTY EOD charts
- today markets opened gap down and closed 0.5% in negative at 11671
- first 15 min low provided good support during the day
- AD was 1:2
- region of 11500-11600 expected to provide good support this week (and maybe next also)
- ATR(14) is 173 meaning min SL of 350 points required for a positional trade using EOD charts
- in percentage terms, this is 3% and is quite low.
Stupid "formatting error" leads to 10% intraday swing in BHARTIARTL
Read more at https://twitter.com/rajivmehta19/status/1321492982575427584They copy paste lines from excel to pdf and by mistake the row width was reduced leading to only the middle line being visible so it LOOKED like limit is up to 100%.
— Rajiv Mehta (@rajivmehta19) October 28, 2020
The three lines were:
‘Automatic Route upto 49%; Government Route beyond 49%.
October 28, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- nifty today closed 1.3% in negative at 11730
- AD was 1:2
- of late, big red bars are occurring more often
- however all activity is within the body of the big red bar formed on 15-OCT
- a break of 11650 spot is expected
- yesterday KOTAKBANK was up 12%
- and today BHARTI was up 10% initially
- is this index management?
- coz last 8-10 days only index heavyweights are moving up
October 27, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- today markets closed 1% in positive at 11890
- but AD was flat
- this sideways trading will eventually lead to a breakdown or breakout
- key levels to watch are 12650 and 12050 spot
October 26, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- last 4-5 days of extremely rangebound movement is resolving to downside
- this led to selloff today with nifty closing 1.4% in negative at 11768
- AD was 2:1
- note all activity is still happening within the body of the big red bar formed on 15-OCT
- expect support around 11500-11600
October 23, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 11930
- AD was 2:1
- this week, nifty was extremely rangebound
- all trading days had a doji
- incidentally all activity took place within the body of the big red bar
October 22, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in negative at 11896
- AD was 5:4
- markets still trading within range of big red bar
- note the recent 1100 point rally in less than 2 weeks
- so some sideways movement can persist for a long time
October 21, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- volatility continues within circled area
- today nifty crossed 12000, fell more than 200 points and then recovered
- close was 0.3% positive at 11938
- AD was flat
October 20, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11897
- AD was flat
- however VIX is increasing almost everyday
- today it was up 4% at 22.69
- will we have a gap down opening tomorrow?
October 19, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- today nifty closed 0.9% in positive at 11873
- AD was 3:2
- trailing SL 5 bar low was triggered for long positions
- 10 bar low trailing is now at 11564 and will increase to 11629 tomorrow
October 18, 2020
5 Key Rules For Heikin Ashi Trade
There are broadly 5 rules that need to be followed when trading with Heiken Ashi Candles.
Rule Number 1 – Green candles with no lower “shadows” indicate a strong uptrend: When you spot these on charts, be in the trade and don’t think about profit booking. You might want to add to your long position and exit short positions.
Rule Number 2 – Candles with a small body with upper and lower shadows indicate trend change: These are indecision candles and require more confirmation.
Rule Number 3 – Red/Black candles with no upper shadow indicates strong a downtrend: When you spot these on charts, be in the trade and don’t think about profit booking. You might want to add to your short position and exit long positions
Rule Number 4 – Candles with long lower shadows represent Buying interest. Always take note of these candles and assess price action after you spot these candles.
Rule Number 5 – Candles with long upper shadows represent selling interest and be cautious with existing long positions if you spot such Candles.
Read more at https://tradingwithtrend.com/heiken-ashi-strategy
How crucial is risk management in protecting the capital and for healthy return as well : A case study
hw crucial is risk management in protecting the capital and for healthy return as well : A case study@PAVLeader @sanstocktrader @RajarshitaS
— Aneesh Philomina Antony (@ProdigalTrader) July 31, 2019
courtesy : https://t.co/Jx7mbp2Y3p pic.twitter.com/SmakhUAQF7
October 17, 2020
Video: Trading in the BSE in the good old days
BSE : Old ring before the present jeejibhoi tower ring pic.twitter.com/BTa1LqPijO
— Rajiv Mehta (@rajivmehta19) October 16, 2020
October 16, 2020
The decline of the US...remember the decline of the British "Empire"?
Excited to share a new piece in FP!
— Rush Doshi (@RushDoshi) October 12, 2020
I argue ODNI's claim that China prefers Trump "not win reelection" tells only half the story.
Party texts show China believes Trump is accelerating US decline.
This has triggered a new phase in PRC grand strategy.
1/https://t.co/qTdFBKclYW
NIFTY EOD charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11762
- AD was 2:1
- most probably this was a dead cat bounce
- region of 11500-11600 is a support area
- if this breaks next week, expect a deeper correction
- note that kplswing indicator is still showing trend as bullish
- however a trailing SL at 5 bar low got triggered yesterday
- 10 bar trailing SL will be at 11500 after 1-2 trading days
October 15, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- but today nifty had a big red bar
- as it closed 2.4% in negative at 11680
- AD was 1:3
- VIX jumped 9% to 22
- significant support is 11500
- going by 5 bar rule + big bar, you can assume SL hit today
- yesterday call writers got stopped out and
- today put writers got stopped out
October 14, 2020
NIFTY intraday charts
5 min:
- traded first short and second long
- did not trade first long as signal was near resistance
- similarly did not trade second short as signal was near support
- circled area showed a low risk long trade with exit at 11880 F
- I did not trade
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.3% in positive at 11971
- AD was 4:5
- there was initial intraday selling followed by a smart rally
- this is nicely visible in intraday charts
October 13, 2020
October 12, 2020
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 11931
- AD was 1:2
- of late, market breadth is flat to negative even on up days
- support 11500
Harvard: Why beating the stock markets (or index funds) is incredibly difficult
• Performance persistence is rare: Harvard’s endowment hasn’t always lagged the market. In fact, it produced a remarkable string of successes in the late 1990s and early aughts. Cumulatively over the 15 years through mid-2008, for example, it beat the S&P 500 by more than five annualized percentage points, better than almost every actively managed mutual fund and Wall Street institutional investor. While the odds of producing that 15-year market-beating return were very low, they were even lower that the endowment’s managers would be able to repeat that success. Rather than reacting smugly, we should take to heart that even the best and the brightest are unable to consistently beat the market.
• Overconfidence is an obstacle: One of the reasons that performance persistence is rare is that success breeds overconfidence. I have no inside knowledge about the managers running the Harvard endowment, but it would be difficult not to let a 15-year annualized alpha of over five percentages points go to their heads.
Markets care a damn about your qualification, title or CV
Honest disclosure - I've never worked on the sell-side... From day 1 of my career I've been working on the buy-side (that's 12-years now)...
First day on my job my PM told me "at our firm we eat what we kill... no one cares about your title or CV. If you don't make your target
First day on my job my PM told me "at our firm we eat what we kill... no one cares about your title or CV. If you don't make your target
you will not survive even a quarter" (and my first day on the job was Sep 1st,2008)...
Fast-forward 6-months - still in the business (after remarkable trading and decent p&l through lehman aftermath)... Went on a business trip with my PM to meet our counterparties at the banks
Fast-forward 6-months - still in the business (after remarkable trading and decent p&l through lehman aftermath)... Went on a business trip with my PM to meet our counterparties at the banks
I was so impressed because every person I met was either "head of (something)" or VP (according to their business cards... I said to my PM "we must be important if these guys have time to meet us"... he told me "everybody at these banks is either VP or head of... even the janitor
Fast forward 12-year :
most of the traders/VPs/head-of are no longer trading for these banks (some are even out of the market completely)... very few (very bright people) buy-side still in the game..
That throws me back to boxing... I often see guys coming to the gym with high
most of the traders/VPs/head-of are no longer trading for these banks (some are even out of the market completely)... very few (very bright people) buy-side still in the game..
That throws me back to boxing... I often see guys coming to the gym with high
end gear, 200$ shoes, 450$ gloves, doing fancy pad-work (and post on IG), but when they go in the ring they don't last through one round, as the devote too much time to appearance rather than the nitty gritty of the game...
These expensive gloves and super light shoes don't make
These expensive gloves and super light shoes don't make
up for lack of fundamentals, and will not help them when they are with their back against the rope getting hammered.
My point? the market couldn't care less about our titles and resume.. if one wants to survive he/she needs good fundamental and to constantly grow and evolve
My point? the market couldn't care less about our titles and resume.. if one wants to survive he/she needs good fundamental and to constantly grow and evolve
Source: https://twitter.com/VolQuant
October 11, 2020
Charts do not predict prices
Charts do NOT predict prices. No form of TA predicts prices.
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 10, 2020
Charts suggest the path of least resistance
Charts provide a means to determine the risk of a trade
Charts offer help in timing
Charts offer POSSIBILITIES, not probabilities and certainly not certainties
October 10, 2020
Sheer randomness or luck?
What about the other children who studied in the same school/ similar school in same/ similar village?
— KPL (@vfmdirect) October 10, 2020
Any info how they are doing?
Or does randomness have a huge role tp play.
October 9, 2020
NIFTY EOD Charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in positive at 11914
- but AD was 4:5
- now swing low at 10800
- but that is far so I will consider support around 11500
- minor whipsaws ok
Schroedinger's plates - for the scientifically inclined
They are both broken and not broken until you open the door.
October 8, 2020
Historic move
Nifty fell from 11800 to 10800 in September, all the bears came with usual arguments, "Corona, Lockdown, High PE, Bad Economy, GDP, etc, etc"
— P R Sundar (@PRSundar64) October 8, 2020
But last 9 trading sessions, 1100 points higher is Historic, never happened in India markets before. (Exception: 2009 event based gap up)
NIFTY EOD charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in positive at 11835
- AD was 4:5
- despite gapup opening, markets closed flat forming a doji
- of late, AD is not encouraging as markets are moving higher
- and we have heavyweights leading the rally turn by turn
- one day it was TCS, next day Reliance, then HDFC twins and so on
- today it was TCS and HDFCBANK
- note region of 11000-12000 is a huge congestion area for almost 3 years
- an interesting observation
- nifty has gained 1000 points in less than 10 days
- and most of the gains were in overnight gapups
October 7, 2020
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