- this month, nifty closed flat and has formed a doji
- all activity was within body of prev month bar
- resistance 10000
May 31, 2020
NIFTY weekly charts
- this week, nifty closed 7% in positive
- this is 2nd time, nifty has managed a close above 9500
- the first time it happened, nifty sold off the next week
- stiff resistance around 10000
BANKNIFTY technicals
- trend is down
- resistance 20000 support 16000
- this week closing was above prev week high
May 29, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- markets are rangebound
- today nifty closed 1% in positive at 9580
- AD was 2:1
- discount on nifty futures increased to 100 points at close
- this is something I have seen after a very long time
- a high discount means long positions in stocks are hedged with short position in futures
- low chance of markets falling from here... just a guess
May 28, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is sideways
- both long and short signals have failed
- this is normal after a huge move
- today market closed 2% in positive at 9490
- AD was 2:1
- my rules for any indicator based trade /market are simple
- trade the signal but keep SL around or 5 bar low (for a long signal and vice versa)
- this keeps losses small and at same time helps ride the range.
- above works for any timeframe say 5 min, 15 min or daily or weekly charts etc
May 27, 2020
Market outlook + options range
Daily charts:
- market is rangebound on daily charts
- till yesterday, I mentioned the trend as down
- with today's move, the SL of 9300 is gone
- you are of course, free to consider any other appropriate SL
- for eg, another good SL could be 9500
- today markets closed 3% in positive at 9315
- AD was 3:2
- on weekly charts, a higher high higher low is already forming
- above view is valid till weekly low does not break (8800)
kplswing signal
Options range
New to the markets?
If you are a Beginner,— Trade With Trend (@ST_PYI) May 26, 2020
1) In Day Trading, never Buy a Stock below 20 DMA,
2) In Swing Trading, never Buy if Stock is below 50 DMA,
3) In Positional Trading, check if Stock is above 200 DMA.
By following these Simple Rules, you will end up saving lot of money over time.
May 26, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 9029
- AD was flat
- see big red of 18-MAY
- nifty trading within that range for 5th consecutive day
- despite such narrow range, there have been very good intraday opportunities
- note that almost every gapup this month is being sold into
- this provides good ideas for short trades intraday
- trading above 9180-9200 spot will be bullish
- deep support 8500
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 9029
- AD was flat
- see big red of 18-MAY
- nifty trading within that range for 5th consecutive day
- despite such narrow range, there have been very good intraday opportunities
- note that almost every gapup this month is being sold into
- this provides good ideas for short trades intraday
- trading above 9180-9200 spot will be bullish
- deep support 8500
May 25, 2020
May 23, 2020
BANKNIFTY technicals
- pretty obvious that trend is still down
- below 16000, expect more downside
- resistance 19000-20000
- below 16000, expect more downside
- resistance 19000-20000
The one lot options trader
Sometime in the 1980s-90s
Did you take a lot of ribbing?
Oh, did I! They called me “one-lot” for the longest time. The individual who gave me the hardest time was the best trader in the crowd. He had made millions and was virtually a legend in his own time. He started leaning on me and ribbing me right from the beginning. He made my life miserable.
Did your ego get dented by these really successful traders railing you?
Oh, yes. And, it went on for almost a year, day in, day out.
W`re you tempted to pick up your trading a little bit?
I did, but not for that reason. My backer, who had given me such a hard time when I was down, was the prod. Although he didn’t know that much about trading, he did give me one piece of very useful advice. Once I started turning it around, he told me to increase my size. He said, “Tony, a banker makes his first loan and he is very careful, but as he gets more comfortable, he makes his loans bigger. You need to increase your size.”
How did the harassment you were taking on the floor finally end?
Read more at https://plewall.com/2018/05/07/tony-saliba-one-lot-triumphs-1/
Did you take a lot of ribbing?
Oh, did I! They called me “one-lot” for the longest time. The individual who gave me the hardest time was the best trader in the crowd. He had made millions and was virtually a legend in his own time. He started leaning on me and ribbing me right from the beginning. He made my life miserable.
Did your ego get dented by these really successful traders railing you?
Oh, yes. And, it went on for almost a year, day in, day out.
W`re you tempted to pick up your trading a little bit?
I did, but not for that reason. My backer, who had given me such a hard time when I was down, was the prod. Although he didn’t know that much about trading, he did give me one piece of very useful advice. Once I started turning it around, he told me to increase my size. He said, “Tony, a banker makes his first loan and he is very careful, but as he gets more comfortable, he makes his loans bigger. You need to increase your size.”
How did the harassment you were taking on the floor finally end?
Read more at https://plewall.com/2018/05/07/tony-saliba-one-lot-triumphs-1/
May 22, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in negative at 9040
- AD was 2:3
- detailed OI levels in separate post
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.7% in negative at 9040
- AD was 2:3
- detailed OI levels in separate post
A ferocious bull market awaits, market leadership to see major shift: Ridham Desai
Ridham Desai, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley India, pointed out that COVID-19 has evinced a very strong fiscal and monetary response the world over and it is quite unprecedented as the world has never seen such a response.
"Even during World War II and in the aftermath of it, we did not see coordinated policy response either across geographies or across agencies. It is multiple times more than the stimulus that was put after the global financial crisis of 2008-09. When we come out of this, all the stimulus waiting to kick in, it is going to create a ferocious bull market around the world," Desai said.
"An unprecedented stimulus has been put in place that is waiting to find its way into the market as well as the economy once the confidence returns. What is required is essentially some comfort that the worst of COVID-19 is over, or more appropriately, we have a vaccine or a cure. So, when the world starts sensing that we have the cure, I think money is going to move into the asset markets," Desai added.
Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/a-ferocious-bull-market-awaits-market-leadership-to-see-major-shift-ridham-desai-5299181.html
"Even during World War II and in the aftermath of it, we did not see coordinated policy response either across geographies or across agencies. It is multiple times more than the stimulus that was put after the global financial crisis of 2008-09. When we come out of this, all the stimulus waiting to kick in, it is going to create a ferocious bull market around the world," Desai said.
"An unprecedented stimulus has been put in place that is waiting to find its way into the market as well as the economy once the confidence returns. What is required is essentially some comfort that the worst of COVID-19 is over, or more appropriately, we have a vaccine or a cure. So, when the world starts sensing that we have the cure, I think money is going to move into the asset markets," Desai added.
Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/a-ferocious-bull-market-awaits-market-leadership-to-see-major-shift-ridham-desai-5299181.html
May 21, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 9106
- AD was 3:2
- VIX down 8% at 33
- today ITC was up 7%... this stock is an index heavy weight
- few days ago, BHARTI was up 11%
- index management?
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in positive at 9106
- AD was 3:2
- VIX down 8% at 33
- today ITC was up 7%... this stock is an index heavy weight
- few days ago, BHARTI was up 11%
- index management?
May 20, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 2% in positive at 9066
- AD was 2:1
- VIX down 11% at 36
- last 2-3 days VIX is stable to negative / no fear
- above has bullish implications
- my SL for short is 9500
- which I will bring down to 9300
- trend is down on daily charts
- today markets closed 2% in positive at 9066
- AD was 2:1
- VIX down 11% at 36
- last 2-3 days VIX is stable to negative / no fear
- above has bullish implications
- my SL for short is 9500
- which I will bring down to 9300
May 19, 2020
Option Chain Intraday Trading Strategy by @nitinbhatia121
Option Chain Intraday Trading Strategy is based on very simple logic and rational. The key two key rules of the option chain analysis are used in this strategy
1. The option writers prefer to SELL or Write or Short the ATM (At The Money) or near ATM options contract for maximum profit. Whereas, the option buyer will prefer to buy a far OTM (Out of Money) option contracts. For example, if the market is trading near 9500 then i will prefer to write 9500 CE or 9000 PE if my view is bearish on the market.
2. If a trader or investor's view is bearish on the market then he or she can either write a call or buy put. Similarly, if the view is bullish then either i can write a put or buy the call options contract.
Now as a trader, I will check the data of Most active Calls and Most active Puts on the NSE website ..........
1. The option writers prefer to SELL or Write or Short the ATM (At The Money) or near ATM options contract for maximum profit. Whereas, the option buyer will prefer to buy a far OTM (Out of Money) option contracts. For example, if the market is trading near 9500 then i will prefer to write 9500 CE or 9000 PE if my view is bearish on the market.
2. If a trader or investor's view is bearish on the market then he or she can either write a call or buy put. Similarly, if the view is bullish then either i can write a put or buy the call options contract.
Now as a trader, I will check the data of Most active Calls and Most active Puts on the NSE website ..........
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in positive at 8880
- AD was 4:5
- today BHARTIATRL was up 11%
- if this stock was flat, nifty would have been down by 80 points
- source: nifty replica at equitymaster
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in positive at 8880
- AD was 4:5
- today BHARTIATRL was up 11%
- if this stock was flat, nifty would have been down by 80 points
- source: nifty replica at equitymaster
May 18, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- nifty gives a sell signal today
- the buy signal generated on 9-APR at 9112 gets closed as swing low of 9000 is violated on closing basis
- the kplswing signal generated on 29-APR at 9553 gives a whipsaw as SL hit today
- it was expected and indicated that buy signal will fail and that is what has happened
- this sell signal can get whipsawed if today's losses are completely recovered in next 1-2 days
- markets closed 3.4% in negative at 8823
- AD was 2:7
- next supports 8500-8000-7500
- resistance 9500-10000
- nifty gives a sell signal today
- the buy signal generated on 9-APR at 9112 gets closed as swing low of 9000 is violated on closing basis
- the kplswing signal generated on 29-APR at 9553 gives a whipsaw as SL hit today
- it was expected and indicated that buy signal will fail and that is what has happened
- this sell signal can get whipsawed if today's losses are completely recovered in next 1-2 days
- markets closed 3.4% in negative at 8823
- AD was 2:7
- next supports 8500-8000-7500
- resistance 9500-10000
May 16, 2020
How the 2008 correction looked like
- this is for perspective
- the correction initially was extremely fast / violent ..just like this time
- this was followed by rangebound trading for several weeks
- the JAN low broke in June and the correction resumed again
- markets lost another 40-50% from JAN lows
Second half of the correction..
- the correction initially was extremely fast / violent ..just like this time
- this was followed by rangebound trading for several weeks
- the JAN low broke in June and the correction resumed again
- markets lost another 40-50% from JAN lows
Second half of the correction..
NIFTY weekly charts
- trend is down
- this is 2nd week of lower high lower low
- support 9000 resistance 9500
- weekly expiry shows limited upside / resistance 9500
- monthly expiry shows limited downside/ support 9000
- this is 2nd week of lower high lower low
- support 9000 resistance 9500
- weekly expiry shows limited upside / resistance 9500
- monthly expiry shows limited downside/ support 9000
May 15, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 9137
- AD was flat
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 9137
- AD was flat
20 L accounting jugglery?
This Rs.20 lakh crore stimulus package is nothing but accounting jugglery.— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 15, 2020
Even Serbia is doing much better than us. https://t.co/eypRGT0NOg— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 15, 2020
Some of you have strongly disagreed with me on providing cash stimulus. Giving cash to poor and leaving more cash with others in the form of tax cuts is the only way to revive demand and the economy.— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 15, 2020
Some of this can be misused. But use would be far more than misuse.
Why not suppport bottom 50% of households by providing Rs.10,000 a month for say next 6 months?— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 14, 2020
At best, you've addressed some supply side issues yesterday. How about demand? This 10K would help these families to survive and support demand .@narendramodi @nsitharaman
S&P 500 charts
- for all the bad news in the world, the index did not break the lows of 23 MAR.
- ditto for Nifty
- both indices had a spectacular "relief rally" and are now consolidating
- S&P support around 2800... if this breaks, expect fall to get worse
- equiv level for India is 9000
- ditto for Nifty
- both indices had a spectacular "relief rally" and are now consolidating
- S&P support around 2800... if this breaks, expect fall to get worse
- equiv level for India is 9000
May 14, 2020
NIFTY options open interest 21MAY expiry
- resistance at 9500... nothing new
- OI increasing at 9200 CE
- OI increasing at 9200 CE
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2.6% in negative at 9143
- AD was 7:10
- markets doing timepass this whole month so far
- range is from 9000 to 9500
- SL for long position is 9000 (indicative)
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2.6% in negative at 9143
- AD was 7:10
- markets doing timepass this whole month so far
- range is from 9000 to 9500
- SL for long position is 9000 (indicative)
May 13, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2% in positive at 9383
- AD was 3:1
- we had a big gapup opening because of an overnight event
- this strong gapup opening was sold into
- reason is markets were in the 9500 region which is a strong resistance zone
- notice that in MAY, every gapup opening has been sold into
- no genius or intelligence required
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 2% in positive at 9383
- AD was 3:1
- we had a big gapup opening because of an overnight event
- this strong gapup opening was sold into
- reason is markets were in the 9500 region which is a strong resistance zone
- notice that in MAY, every gapup opening has been sold into
- no genius or intelligence required
NIFTY not so nifty NIFTY
Not so $NIFTY #NIFTY— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) May 13, 2020
Could go down immediately from here
or
Could extend rally toward 10,600, get everyone in India bullish, then puke its guts out back to 6,500 pic.twitter.com/8EQSzMCZtz
May 12, 2020
Short trade in RELIANCE near ATH
This is how #Reliance closed amidst strong positive 'news' of investors lining up to buy a stake in Jio. So many in this thread wrote how it is impossible for it to go down because of this 'news'.— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) May 12, 2020
A classic example of how you are still making kindergarten trading mistakes. pic.twitter.com/ZXt9HSgjtJ
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.5% in negative at 9196
- AD was 7:11
- support forming around 9000
- nice resistance around 9500
Note on trading:
- irrespective of what trading system or timeframe you follow
- just remember that half the signals will fail
- so you must have a rule for exiting profitable positions
- and an exit system for loss making trades
- position sizing will take of the risks
I may use 20 bar swing, hourly cross over or whatever system... my exit is invariably based on 3 or 5 bar swing.
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.5% in negative at 9196
- AD was 7:11
- support forming around 9000
- nice resistance around 9500
Note on trading:
- irrespective of what trading system or timeframe you follow
- just remember that half the signals will fail
- so you must have a rule for exiting profitable positions
- and an exit system for loss making trades
- position sizing will take of the risks
I may use 20 bar swing, hourly cross over or whatever system... my exit is invariably based on 3 or 5 bar swing.
Adaptation
2) Many small professional resets: learned to lecture on Zoom. Learned to set up a blackboard behind me for illustrations.— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) May 11, 2020
Of course could start a business along these lines. Universities are going out of business & there is something to grab as they are too incompetent to adapt.
May 11, 2020
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed marginally in red at 9239
- AD was flat
- nifty rangbound this month
- unable to sustain above 9400
- below 9000, there can be lot of selling
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed marginally in red at 9239
- AD was flat
- nifty rangbound this month
- unable to sustain above 9400
- below 9000, there can be lot of selling
May 9, 2020
To stop SIPs or not
Many are asking whether they should stop SIPs. If you've emergency fund equivalent to one year of expenses, go ahead and continue SIPs. If not, better late than never, stop SIPs and build the required emergency fund.— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 9, 2020
Those who've lost jobs or have salary cuts, stop SIPs.
Those who sell products or services always say it's a good time to invest. That's their bread and butter.— D.Muthukrishnan (@dmuthuk) May 9, 2020
As the economy is into recession, see your financial condition and decide. If you've surplus money not needed for next 10 years, then only go ahead and invest.
BANKNIFTY technicals
- trend is down
- like nifty, this index formed swing high around 22000
- below 18900, next support 16000
- ATR is 12% or 2300 points
- like nifty, this index formed swing high around 22000
- below 18900, next support 16000
- ATR is 12% or 2300 points
NIFTY weekly charts
- trend is down on daily charts
- we had 4 consecutive weeks of higher high and higher low
- last week's bar was 8%
- this week opening was 4% down
- this week ended with 6% in negative
- lower high lower low formed
- very strong swing high formed around 9900-10000
- we have support around 9000
- this also happens to be 2015 and 2016 swing high
- once this breaks, new lows possible
- we had 4 consecutive weeks of higher high and higher low
- last week's bar was 8%
- this week opening was 4% down
- this week ended with 6% in negative
- lower high lower low formed
- very strong swing high formed around 9900-10000
- we have support around 9000
- this also happens to be 2015 and 2016 swing high
- once this breaks, new lows possible
May 8, 2020
Dismantling labour laws is a step in the right direction
States have already started dismantling some labour regulation, and my arguments on why this is a step in the right direction. 1/n https://t.co/OjMh6iGhTN— Shruti Rajagopalan (@srajagopalan) May 8, 2020
Labour regulation in India regulates every aspect of the employer-employee relationship and requires permissions for everything - hiring, firing, closures, changing the task of an employee, and insists on paying wages, overtime, bonuses far above market clearing wage. 3/n— Shruti Rajagopalan (@srajagopalan) May 8, 2020
Those who are lamenting the loss of labour protection because UP and MP suspended labour regulation need to understand that 90% of India's labour for never had that protection in the first place. The restrictions either prevented hiring, or created "contractor/dalal system". 5/n— Shruti Rajagopalan (@srajagopalan) May 8, 2020
Ideally, there should be minimal labour regulation, mostly health and safety regulation, and some default standard fixed term contracts. But in the absence of sensible regulation, no regulation is better than the current labour permit raj that hurts labour interests. 7/n— Shruti Rajagopalan (@srajagopalan) May 8, 2020
Read more at https://twitter.com/srajagopalan/status/1258604944082579465
Market outlook
Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in positive at 9251
- AD was 4:5
- VIX down 3% to 38
- option writing support 9000
- very strong resistance around 10000 levels
5 min charts:
15 min charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.6% in positive at 9251
- AD was 4:5
- VIX down 3% to 38
- option writing support 9000
- very strong resistance around 10000 levels
5 min charts:
15 min charts:
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)