NIFTY monthly charts

- trend is up
- support 10000
- looks like start of correction
- stiff resistance around 11000-11200

-2 hammers formed

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- few days ago I said trend is down as markets closed below a specific swing low
- later markets formed a lower swing low and today they recovered smartly
- note that we have 4 swing lows in recent month... all close to each other
- because of this, I am negating my prev view and am increasing the swing low SL to 10600
- till this is held, I will assume trend is up
- worst case, this  SL will be hit

Are you a rent seeker?

In a long career, I've (almost) never seen anyone get rich while employed (via bonuses/stock options, as w/bankers, CEOs, & rich slaves), & subsequently also make money on their own, in self employment.

If you can't make it on your own, it's #rentseeking.

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) January 30, 2019

There is no holy grail in the market

There is no holy grail in the market.

And even if one is discovered, traders will mess it up during execution.

— AP (@ap_pune) January 31, 2019

For the following chart, all traders will earn different profits despite using the same indicator.

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 10652
- AD was 5:4

If you like a company's product, should you buy the stock?

A reader asks, “As an investor, how should I view the correlation between being bullish on the product and being bullish on the stock?”

The idea that you should buy what you know goes something like this- “I cannot believe how much money I spend at Costco. Hey wait a minute, why don’t I buy some stock in this company?”

This line of thinking was made famous by Peter Lynch, the former head of Fidelity’s Magellan Fund. Lynch, however, said this concept was taken out of context and oversimplified. He told the Wall Street Journal, “I’ve never said, If you go to a mall, see a Starbucks and say it’s good coffee, you should call Fidelity brokerage and buy the stock.”

“What you know” can be a great place to start, but that shouldn’t replace actual analysis. “If you can’t understand the balance sheet, Lynch said, “you probably shouldn’t own it.”

You might love your GoPro camera or your Ford Explorer, but that doesn’t mean other people share your opinion. And if everyone does share your opinion, that can actually make for a risky investment. Focusing on the fundamentals and ignoring the expectations falls under the category of what Michael Mauboussin has called the single greatest error:

Read more at https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/01/29/the-single-greatest-error

Scam or no scam... most HFC stocks near 2016/ 2017 lows except HDFC

DHFL

DHFL : ANATOMY OF INDIA’S BIGGEST FINANCIAL SCAM by cobrapost.com

Read original story at http://www.cobrapost.com/blog/press-realise-dhfl-l/1374

Read DHFL's response at https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/9a141cfb-7525-4c9a-a249-bcc19d7f8350.pdf

I am just posting the chart.

NIFTY options open interest analysis

JAN series:
- highest OI is mostly in calls... limited upsides
- 11000 CE has highest OI
- in puts, highest OI is at 10500

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is down on daily charts
- today nifty closed flat at 10652
- AD was flat

Fastest exit by any independent director

Source: alphaideas.in

Open positions and stoploss

Stock	Close	% Change	Bought at	Buy Date	Remarks	Trailing Stoploss	Returns %
ADANIPORTS	326.10	-12.77	346	15/11/2018	Exit trade	370	-5.81
BAJFINANCE	2458.50	-5.43	2402	16/11/2018	Exit trade	2500	2.35
BRITANNIA	3203.45	-0.10	2974	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	3080	7.72
DABUR	427.40	-0.60	419	26/11/2018	Hold long positions	410	1.99
HAVELLS	698.70	-1.33	666	13/11/2018	Hold long positions	670	4.89
HDFC	1946.90	-1.56	1825	13/11/2018	Hold long positions	1940	6.70
HDFCBANK	2084.15	-0.57	2004	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	2080	3.98
RELIANCE	1229.55	-1.32	1127	16/11/2018	Hold long positions	1100	9.06
SIEMENS	991.45	-3.72	981	16/11/2018	Exit trade	1020	1.02

Another scam?

Monday belonged to the Bears
Tuesday all eyes on the Cobra pic.twitter.com/pJIWhbnGaR

— Nigel D'Souza (@Nigel__DSouza) January 28, 2019

BANK NIFTY sell signal

- trend has now turned down
- SL 27750 spot



Chart with kplswing indicator

NIFTY triangle breakout

- so we had a breakout the upside
- followed by a break of the lower trendline
- so are markets still rangebound?

- how does one resolve this contradiction?

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend has turned down from today
- I increased swing low SL from 10540 to 10680

- today markets closed 1.1% in negative at 10662
- AD was 2:7

- option writing resistance 11000

Modinomics | India takes huge leaps in Ease of Doing Business ranking, thanks to 'Make in India'

India leapfrogged to the 77th rank in the World Bank's latest Ease of Doing Business rankings (2019), jumping 23 notches from 2018.

The report also recognizes India as one of the top 10 improvers in this year’s assessment, for the second successive time. India is the only large country this year to have achieved such a significant shift.

The jump is significant, as it comes after last year’s 30 rung jump when India moved into to the top 100 rankings among 190 countries.

India has improved its rank by 53 positions in the last two years, and 65 positions in the last four years (2014-18).

Read more at https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/modinomics-india-takes-huge-leaps-in-ease-of-doing-business-ranking-thanks-to-make-in-india-3347371.html

Trade logs by Keshav

* Entered short at the arrow candle. Around 10785

* SL days high.

* Entered in ITM option instead of futures as i usually do.

* Kite has some feature called risk check. It says probability of my trade being profitable. Dont know exactly how it helps.

MSCI rejig of investment cap may trigger $1-b outflow from index

Emkay Global Financial Services expects a potential outflow of around $1 billion from MSCI India constituents following its proposed changes to foreign ownership investment limits.

Global provider of capital market indices, MSCI, has proposed changes to foreign ownership investment limits for India securities following the SEBI diktat on FII/FPI limits.

According to the broking firm, stocks such as L&T and ITC would be impacted the most. Once the changes are accepted, this will reduce India’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Market index by 0.23 percentage points to 8.55 per cent from 8.78 per cent.

Constituent stocks of the MSCI Market Index may get impacted, with the proposed...

Read more at https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/proposed-rejig-of-msci-may-trigger-1-b-outflow-from-index/article26092103.ece

Has Maruti Suzuki lost track or is it the whole car industry?

Investors were jolted out of their seats on Friday after Maruti Suzuki India Ltd reported a sharp narrowing of operating profit margin to under 10%. The company’s flagging sales volume data had given the impression that the company has hit a rough patch, but with margins also dropping sharply, it now looks like it will be a rocky road to recovery.

The close to 600 basis points drop in margins came without warning, prompting analysts at Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd to call their report on the company’s results, “Unexpected slowdowns are the worst".

Maruti Suzuki shares fell more than 8% on Friday and hit a 52-week low. Note that some analysts have downgraded earnings estimates by as much as 8-10% each year for the next three fiscal years. A moot question is if this spells gloom for the country’s auto industry too.

Read more at https://www.livemint.com/market/mark-to-market/has-maruti-suzuki-lost-track-or-is-it-the-whole-car-industry-1548608176019.html

Weekly charts:



Daily charts:

There are no perfect entries

There are no perfect entries:
Breakout may be false
Pullback may never come
"Confirmation" may be late

Faster you accept, faster you learn

— Rayner Teo (@Rayner_Teo) January 24, 2019

BQLearning - F&O Series: Open Interest And Market Wide Position Limit

Open interest is the number of contracts or positions outstanding in futures and options on an exchange. It may be denoted in a number of contracts or the number of shares. It is computed by summing up net open positions in the derivative of an index or stock. These positions must be closed on expiry if not squared off earlier. Open interest in any derivative cannot exceed the market-wide positio..

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/bqlearning/bqlearning-fo-series-open-interest-market-wide-position-limit#gs.tTAXf4ps

Copyright © BloombergQuint

Weekend read: how to buy a personal jet

Most of us have at some time or the other have bought a bike or a car. The buying process is straight forward - check with friends, read a review on a portal, visit a dealer, take a test drive and buy the car.

But how does one buy a personal jet? How do you know you need one?

Do you go for second hand or a new one? Five seater? Ten seater? Short range, long range? What about running costs? And repairs and maintenance? Interiors? Acoustics? Avionics?

Few days ago, I read an excellent article on this at Vanity Fair. Not surprisingly the writer has chosen to remain anonymous. In the rarified world of ultra rich and super wealthy, these things are rarely bragged about.

Note the article was published in 1998 but is still relevant today.

Excerpts:

ZEE brings down DISHTV? Both down 30%

Zee Group Shares Crash On Report Of Money Laundering Post ...

https://www.ndtv.com › Home › Market

12 hours ago - Zee Group Shares Crash On Report Of Money Laundering Post Notes Ban. The shares on the BSE lost up to 33 per cent during the intra-day ...

Zee Group shares crash, Subhash Chandra blames 'negatives forces ...

https://indianexpress.com › Business

11 hours ago - The admission incidentally came after Zee shares tanked a whopping 26.43 per cent on the BSE to Rs 319.35 Friday, while other group ...

Subhash Chandra apologises as Zee Group shares crash on media ...

https://www.business-standard.com › News-IANS › Business-Economy

11 hours ago - Read more about Subhash Chandra apologises as Zee Group shares crash on media report of money laundering post-demo (Repeating for ...

ZEE chart

BANKNIFTY charts

- trend is up
- support 27000

NIFTY weekly charts

- nifty trading in rising channel
- H&S pattern visible
- Right shoulder being formed?
- support 10000 resistance 11000-11200 region

Sensex hourly chart

- sensex breaks first trendline
- now taking support at next trendline
- note all legs are corrective and not impulsive
- if any leg was impulsive we would have had a big correction
- since that is not the case so high chance markets may do timepass

Swing trading signals :: 25-JAN-2019

• This report is for your personal use only and is valid for next trading day.
• Signals are generated using the kplswing indicator.
• Algorithm: BUY signal is generated if a stock closes above 20 days high.
• Stock name is highlighted in case of first signal of the trend.
• Exits: There are no targets and exits are based on a trailing stoploss. Returns are whatever the market gives - 20%, 100%, etc.
• Trailing SL: For long positions, use weekly low or 10 days low.
• Click on stock name link for charts, more info etc
• Limit investment per stock to 3% of trading capital or limit loss per trade to max 1% of your trading capital.
• Important: Trade in cash only and never in futures.
• Liquidity filter: ||||| good liquidity - ||||| excellent liquidity. Avoid stocks with ||||| low liquidity.

This information is for your study only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell

All signals:

Buy signals: 
KSCL -

Sell signals:
ADANIENT - ACC - AMBUJACEM - APOLLOTYRE - APTECHT - ASTRAL - BAJAJ-AUTO - BAJAJELEC - BAJAJHLDNG -
BANKBARODA - BANKINDIA - BEML -BERGEPAINT - BHEL - BOSCHLTD - CANBK - CEATLTD -
CENTURYTEX - CHENNPETRO - COLPAL - DELTACORP - DISHTV - DLF - ENGINERSIN - GRASIM -GSFC - HDFCAMC -
HEROMOTOCO - HINDZINC - HSCL - HUDCO - IBVENTURES -
ICICIPRULI - IDFC - IFCI - INDHOTEL - INDIANB - INDIACEM -JISLJALEQS - L&TFH - LICHSGFIN - LINDEINDIA - M&M - MARUTI - MCX - NCC - NHPC - PNB - PRABHAT -
RAMCOCEM - RAYMOND - RCOM - RELINFRA -SAIL - SBIN - SOUTHBANK - SUNTV - SUPREMEIND - SUVEN - SYNDIBANK - TATACOMM - TATAGLOBAL - TATASTEEL -
TORNTPOWER - TV18BRDCST -TVSMOTOR - ULTRACEMCO - UNIONBANK - VENKEYS -
VIJAYABANK - ZEEL -

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty opened gapup but closed in negative at 10780
- AD was 5:13

- option writing resistance 11000

- VIX down 1%.. no fear?

When smoking was considered cool

What is good today may become evil tomorrow... 
from the Meluhas, Nagas, Vayuputras trilogy by Amish Tripathi

Interesting ads from the past

Your emotions when long or short in same market

Interesting nifty chart

- trendline supports still holding

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.2% in negative at 10850
- AD was 6:11

- highest OI at 11000 in calls followed by 10800 in puts

- markets extremely rangebound
- today was 5th day of doing nothing

When someone becomes rich and famous

HEURISTIC:  In any profession, when someone becomes rich and/or famous and starts socializing or attending organized gatherings w/the rich & famous & members of the IAND*, you can start counting the time until the big blowup.

* International Association of Name Droppers

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) January 13, 2019

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.8% in negative at 10830
- AD was 7:11

- Options: highest OI at 11000 CE and then 10500 PE

- notice trendline on chart
- as long as this holds, nothing to worry

How position size affects your returns ( by Keshav)

Here is the result sheet of a coin toss game. 

Let's say the rules for the game are: (1) we start with $1,000, (2) we always bet that heads come up, (3) we can bet any amount that we have left, (4) if tails comes up, we lose our bet, (5) if heads comes up, we do not lose our bet; instead, we win twice as much as we bet, and (6) the coin is fair and so the probability of heads is 50%. This game is similar to some trading methods.

Trade logs by Keshav

* Exited from long position at 10900. Taken at 10850.

* Took a short trade at 10900. Sl 11000.

 * Risk taken for this trade is 0.5%

*  Waiting patiently for a trend to come.

The Untold Story of A Self-Made Investing Millionaire

...unlike most people, the story of Anne does not end with her retirement at age 51, with $21,000. That’s what most of us are looking for, right? A kitty good enough so that we hang our shoes and suits and retire to a happy, peaceful life?

But Anne’s story continued for another 50+ years, till 1995, when she died at an age slightly above 101. By that time, her investment portfolio was worth $22 million! That’s about $36 million in today’s money.

Now, if you are awed with that number, please note that Anne created this $22 million from $21,000 at an investment rate of return of just 14.6%. This was almost double the US S&P 500 index’s annual return of 7.5% during that period.

So, how did Anne do it? Was she a super investor?

One factor that helped her was the $3,100 ‘annual’ pension that she received after retirement, a large part of which she invested. It was a petty sum, to say the least.

But, as per Clark, the real heroes of Anne’s story of wealth creation were three – frugality, longevity and compound interest.

Although she was neither born into great wealth, nor did she generate it during her working life, Anne did possess these three very important things.

Read more at https://www.safalniveshak.com/story-of-self-made-investing-millionaire

This PRABHAT DAIRY non sense has to stop

This Prabhat Dairy non sense has to stop: Company has sold a business which contributes 98% revenue and promoter will decide what to do with cash!!

Basically, they have sold the company. Let there be open offer. Let the shareholders decide what to do.

— Anuj Singhal (@_anujsinghal) January 22, 2019

Surprised to see stock open gap up ... .there is no good news at all... pity the buyer

Not surprised to see stock close 14% in negative

Market outlook

Daily charts:
- trend is up on daily charts
- today nifty closed 0.4% in negative at 10923
- AD was 5:11

- past 5 days, nifty is forming small "hammer" patterns
- trading range is extremely narrow

- option writing support 10900 resistance 11000

WIPRO bonus history

Trading signals

>>> Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade. <<<

Stock name	Close	% Ch	20 Day Swing Indicator						Last Month's		RSI
			Trend	Date	Price	Return %	Fixed SL	Trailing SL	High	Low	5 D	14 D
||||| ALLAHABAD BANK	42.65	-2.50%	SELL	21/01/19	42.65	0.00	46.90	47.90	50	42	20	38
||||| APOLLO TYRE	216.60	-0.50%	SELL	16/01/19	218.85	1.03	240.70	237.00	245	221	17	36
||||| ARVIND	92.35	-0.50%	SELL			0.00	0.00	100.95	107	96	23	32
||||| AVANTIFEED	366.75	-1.50%	SELL	21/01/19	366.75	0.00	403.40	398.00	419	338	28	43
||||| BANDHANBNK	426.60	-3.00%	SELL	09/01/19	455.40	6.32	500.90	563.00	584	462	18	32
||||| BBTC	1228.05	-1.50%	SELL	06/12/18	1308.30	6.13	1439.10	1348.00	1405	1182	15	34
||||| CANFINHOME	264.25	-1.50%	SELL	21/01/19	264.25	0.00	290.65	297.00	297	226	19	41
||||| CENTRAL BANK	31.95	-8.50%	SELL	21/01/19	31.95	0.00	35.10	37.95	38	28	10	36
||||| COAL INDIA	229.00	0.00%	SELL	01/11/18	261.10	12.29	287.20	254.00	254	228	19	30
||||| DENABANK	13.35	-1.00%	SELL	03/01/19	14.40	7.29	15.80	18.45	18	15	16	29
||||| DMART	1351.30	-2.00%	SELL	14/01/19	1397.40	3.30	1537.10	1678.00	1699	1473	16	30
||||| FRETAIL	422.70	-5.00%	SELL	02/01/19	468.50	9.78	515.35	575.00	575	484	19	28
||||| GRAPHITE	684.15	-2.00%	SELL	19/09/18	953.95	28.28	1049.30	799.00	945	702	31	31
||||| GRUH	226.80	-2.00%	SELL	08/01/19	255.25	11.15	280.75	333.00	335	275	16	27
||||| HEG	3377.50	-4.50%	SELL	05/12/18	4030.25	16.20	4433.25	3928.00	4208	3480	20	28
||||| HERO MOTOR	2794.25	-3.50%	SELL	07/01/19	2957.95	5.53	3253.70	3301.00	3380	2982	18	30
||||| INDIABULL REAL ESTATE	80.60	-5.00%	SELL	21/01/19	80.60	0.00	88.65	92.75	96	69	8	36
||||| IDEA	32.85	-6.50%	SELL	30/11/18	35.30	6.94	38.80	38.30	39	32	15	30
||||| INFOSYS	745.00	1.50%	BUY	13/12/18	697.75	6.77	627.95	637.00	714	637	88	74
||||| IOLCP	224.20	5.50%	BUY	05/11/18	140.55	59.52	126.45	161.00	177	142	88	79
||||| JAIN IRRIGATION	61.85	-4.00%	SELL	05/12/18	63.75	2.98	70.10	70.60	71	58	21	36
||||| KEC	270.75	-1.00%	SELL	14/01/19	279.40	3.10	307.30	307.00	316	265	15	35
||||| KOTAK BANK	1267.60	2.00%	BUY	21/01/19	1267.60	0.00	1140.80	1198.00	1346	1171	77	61
||||| NIIT LTD	93.05	2.00%	BUY	12/11/18	78.40	18.69	70.55	82.00	95	82	91	69
||||| NIITTECH	1269.10	3.50%	BUY	14/01/19	1187.70	6.85	1068.90	1102.00	1166	1031	92	74
||||| NMDC	90.25	-0.50%	SELL	16/11/18	100.75	10.42	110.80	99.50	98	89	27	38
||||| PNBHOUSING	879.05	-0.50%	SELL	21/01/19	879.05	0.00	966.95	970.00	1008	876	27	38
||||| RELIANCE COM	13.10	-1.50%	SELL	03/01/19	13.50	2.96	14.85	15.05	19	14	26	38
||||| SAIL	49.35	-0.50%	SELL	11/07/18	77.40	36.24	85.10	56.80	57	49	21	35
||||| SEQUENT	87.10	4.50%	BUY	09/11/18	61.50	41.63	55.35	63.50	74	62	90	77
||||| SHANKARA	492.75	-2.50%	SELL	05/09/18	1449.60	66.01	1594.55	558.00	665	490	21	29
||||| SOUTHBANK	14.20	-8.50%	SELL	21/01/19	14.20	0.00	15.60	16.15	17	15	15	33
||||| SHRIRAM TRANSPORT	1114.70	-1.50%	SELL	21/01/19	1114.70	0.00	1226.15	1258.00	1291	1052	19	38
||||| SUVEN LIFE	213.00	-2.00%	SELL	10/12/18	222.00	4.05	244.20	239.00	243	216	11	31
||||| UNITED BREWERIES	1485.75	5.00%	BUY	18/12/18	1375.90	7.98	1238.30	1313.00	1412	1185	89	76

35 rows
Av return = 10.90