Bi-polar impact of Kerala deluge: big win coming for some & permanent loss for others.
Big win : Reconstruction, Supply n Leverage
– Cement, roofing, pipe, electrical, wood and plywood cos will have an unprecedented demand starting 15days for next 3months at least fm the staggering amount of reconstruction needed. A fortnight of poor offtake that too in midst of monsoon low season is nothing.
Cement – Ramco,Ind Cement
Wires – Vguard
Roofing- Everest, Visaka
Steel – JSW n others
Electrical – Havells, CG
Other- HIL, Cera
– Lower income households and MSMEs are the biggest users of Gold loans cos and therefore a dramatically higher demand for loans can be expected. On the other hand there will be rising delinquency but as collateral(LTV sub 75pct) is gold, a strong n liquid asset, the net impact will be NIL.
– PV sales will rocket as cars in thousands have been damaged beyond repair. Maruti n Mahindra
– Roads estimated over 5k km have been damaged and need repair or rebuild at express pace. Tar/ Bitumen manufacturers will see demand surge
– Organised retail chains like Big Bazaar n Reliance Mart are running out of stock. In ST their ability to manage supply chain will stand out compared to mom-pop shops.
– Massive medical demand of anti-infection, gastroenteritis, antibacterial etc. Cipla, DRL, Abbott best placed
The ones really impacted are:
Read more at http://alphaideas.in/2018/08/20/kerala-floods-bipolar-impact-on-stocks/
Big win : Reconstruction, Supply n Leverage
– Cement, roofing, pipe, electrical, wood and plywood cos will have an unprecedented demand starting 15days for next 3months at least fm the staggering amount of reconstruction needed. A fortnight of poor offtake that too in midst of monsoon low season is nothing.
Cement – Ramco,Ind Cement
Wires – Vguard
Roofing- Everest, Visaka
Steel – JSW n others
Electrical – Havells, CG
Other- HIL, Cera
– Lower income households and MSMEs are the biggest users of Gold loans cos and therefore a dramatically higher demand for loans can be expected. On the other hand there will be rising delinquency but as collateral(LTV sub 75pct) is gold, a strong n liquid asset, the net impact will be NIL.
– PV sales will rocket as cars in thousands have been damaged beyond repair. Maruti n Mahindra
– Roads estimated over 5k km have been damaged and need repair or rebuild at express pace. Tar/ Bitumen manufacturers will see demand surge
– Organised retail chains like Big Bazaar n Reliance Mart are running out of stock. In ST their ability to manage supply chain will stand out compared to mom-pop shops.
– Massive medical demand of anti-infection, gastroenteritis, antibacterial etc. Cipla, DRL, Abbott best placed
The ones really impacted are:
Read more at http://alphaideas.in/2018/08/20/kerala-floods-bipolar-impact-on-stocks/
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