BANKNIFTY Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Yearly charts

Daily charts - rangebound between 24500 and 26000

NIFTY Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly charts

Weekly charts - trend is up with support at 10000

Advice From A 19 Year Old Girl & Software Developer

After I finished high school, I decided to not go to university. 

This was a very scary step for me, as I was kind of brainwashed into thinking that that’s the only way to have a successful future: everyone around me went to the best universities! I spent so much time trying to get the best grades in high school to eventually go to a good university, did I really just waste so many years of my life for nothing? Yup, pretty much, but I don’t at all regret it!

Most of the people around me didn’t understand and thought I was making a big mistake, but the small amount of people that understood and supported me really motivated me.


I’ve always been very independent: I moved to another country by myself when I was 18, travelled a lot on my own during my teens, and have always been busy doing anything to improve my future. I’ve never felt pressured into doing stuff because society wanted me to, I’ve always done my own thing. After I decided to not go to university, but give my 110% to programming instead, I went to a coding bootcamp for 3 months in Tampa Bay, Florida. I didn’t have to do this, but it definitely helped me to get some structure and be surrounded by other people who enjoyed programming as well, as I didn’t have that before. I coded intensively, was constantly out of my comfort-zone (which I love), put a lot of effort into my personal projects to improve my coding skills, and learned so many new technologies.

Guess what? Even during the 3 months, an insane amount of recruiters reached out to me asking if I could work for them. 

Read more at https://medium.com/@lydiahallie/advice-from-a-19-y-o-girl-software-developer-88737bcc6be5

New "Deep Learning" Hacking Technique Is 99.5% Effective Cracking Into Android Smart Phones

The method uses an algorithm to reveal a person's passcode using the phone's six built-in sensors, which analyzes the unique tilt of the phone and how much light is being blocked while a person enters their four-digit pin. 

Co-author of the study Dr Shivam Bhasin from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) said: 'When you hold your phone and key in the PIN, the way the phone moves when you press 1, 5, or 9, is very different. 

'Likewise, pressing 1 with your right thumb will block more light than if you pressed 9.'

Read more at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-29/new-deep-learning-hacking-technique-995-effective-cracking-android-smart-phones

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.5% in positive at 10530
- AD was positive
- swing low support 10000
- resistance 11000
- minor support 10400

It is a matter of perspective

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat at 10478
- AD was flat
- option writing  support at 10400
- resistance 11000

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.4% in negative at 10490
- Advance decline was 1:2
- swing low support at 10000
- minor support at 10400
- resistance 11000

Nifty target of 20,000 by…

“Indian GDP will double in coming decade”

“India is the fastest growing economy and the best place to invest on this Earth”

“This will be the biggest and longest bull rally”

Well, all these are Bull shit statements used by TV Cartoon channels and Experts to trap retail investors.

• India will become 3rd biggest economy- Well, a slum cluster may have more earning than your household. This doesn’t mean you should invest in that slum cluster. Right? GDP per capita in India will still remain pretty low, and the economy size = GDP per capita X Population. So, with increasing population for coming decades, we will for sure become the biggest economy in the world one day
• India is the fastest growing economy (vs US, China etc)- Over last 10 yrs, India has grown much faster than US & China. But if you had invested in Amazon/Alphabet/Alibaba etc you would have become a lot more richer than investing in Indian cos. US mkts have out-performed Indian mkts by a big margin over last 10 yrs. US cos are innovative. They have Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook. What have we got here?
• Big bull rally- Another bull shit statement. Any macro event at political or cross country level and everyone will start selling from 9 AM sharp. Nifty itself may hit a lower circuit. Well, have you thought about that? Also, note that pharma sector is in bear market for last 1 year. So, bear market is also there in the current market itself.

Read more at https://indianwallstreet.wordpress.com/2017/12/26/nifty-target-of-20000-by

LTCG tax on equity may return to haunt D-Street

Tax on long-term capital gains (LTCG), the impost that is the most fiercely opposed by India’s stock market participants, may finally be taken up by the government in Budget 2018. The Finance Ministry is looking to do away with the distinction between tax on long- and short-term capital gains or raise the holding period for long-term tax exemption to three years from one, two sources close to budget preparations told BusinessLine.

Short-term capital gains from equity holding for less than a year are taxed at 15 per cent. Gains from shares sold after a year, known as LTCG, have been exempt from tax since 2005. The LTCG exemption was intended to promote equity investments, but the Direct Tax Code (DTC) framework, re-drafted in 2009, proposed an elimination of this distinction.

Read more at http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/long-term-tax-on-shares-to-hunt-dstreet/article10002706.ece

My notes: by all means tax LTCG... person is making money.. so why not pay tax?

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed in positive at 10531
- AD was positive
- swing low support 10000... minor support 10400
- resistance 11000

Nifty PE Ratio Analysis – Are we at the Tipping Point?

Current PE Ratio Metric at 26.86 is little above the 2 standard deviation.

So how does it matters to a common investor? In simple statistical terms – Approximately 95% of the area of a normal distribution is within two standard deviations of the mean. i.e in simple terms 95% probability that Nifty is highly overvalued in normal distribution terms with mean reversion tendency is relatively high. Year 2000 and 2008 are the other periods where Nifty crossed 2 standard deviation where the end result is not a good outcome for the investors with short term or medium term horizon.



Read more at http://www.marketcalls.in/fundamentals/nifty-pe-ratio-analysis-tipping-point.html

Possible H&S development in Bitcoin?

Source: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/944357358477631488

Cryptocurrencies tank...

My trading strategy explained in one chart

- Draw lines indicating areas of support and resistance.
- Then buy on close above resistance with SL below support.  And vice versa.
- You can also target for double bottom buy / double top sell
- Works in any time frame - 5 min, hourly, daily, weekly.

- Risk management takes care of losses - profits are whatever the markets give.
- Finally, everything boils down to probability.

So simple... no indicators, wave counts etc.

I don't know why people like to complicate things and use charts like this.

Put differently, if you are spending more than 1 minute to analyse a chart then something is wrong with your methodology.

More analysis never leads to better results.

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today NF closed at 10493, 0.5% in positive
- this is highest ever close for nifty
- AD was marginally positive
- option writing support at 10000

- NOTE: I will on vacation next week... expect delays in updates and fewer posts.

Nooreshtech: How long can divergence between small caps and large caps continue?

BSE Indices are not tracked as much and we find BSE Smallcap as the best indicator for looking at froth/momentum in the markets.

The reason to look at it is because it has the lowest of the smallcaps and is not limited by no of stocks like Nifty Small 100. As of now the index has 849 Stocks !!

The S&P BSE SmallCap is designed to represent the bottom 15% of the total market cap of the S&P BSE AllCap. The index is designed to represent the small-cap segment of India's stock market.

We have been looking for divergence in BSE Smallcap Index move with the benchnmark – Nifty/Sensex for finding times to get strict with our stoplosses as well as ride momentum.

What is the Divergence we look for.

1) Momentum Divergence of BSE smallcap with Nifty/Sensex

When Nifty makes lower tops or is struggling to make strong moves and BSE Smallcap Indices continue to make higher highs or much stronger moves.

After this we generally see a good correction of 10-25% on smallcaps and 5-15% on the benchmark. The tough part is this divergence can stick for a couple of months also. So the strategy is to ride with strict stoplosses but start avoiding leverage. Not the best time to put fresh money and if you are a conservative trader/investor keep increasinhigh g cash in small parts.

2) Panic Divergence of BSE Smallcap with Nifty/Sensex

Read more at http://www.nooreshtech.co.in/2017/12/bse-smallcap-index-and-niftysensex-momentum-divergence-how-long-can-it-continue.html

NIFTY 50's biggest surprises

It does not matter whom you follow as long as ...

It does not matter whom you follow as long as you learn to manage the risk in your trade.

Follow anyone.... any analyst, any TV call or call from any forum... it does not matter. Just control the risk.

If you cannot control the risk part of a trade, chances are you will be out of business very soon.

It is not a coincidence that the most successful traders are also excellent at managing risks.

So whatever you do, make sure you do not risk more than 1 or 2% of your capital on any trade.

This process also sets you up emotionally for a loss so if it comes you are not in pain and know that you have take the hit. Since you are losing only 1% of your capital, booking a loss becomes far more easy.

Bitcoin rally over?

Charlie Munger's view on India - bunch of idiots

And an interesting response from leading_nowhere

Swing trading signals :: 21-DEC-2017

• This report is for educational purposes only and is not recommended for trading or investment.
• Liquidity filter: ||||| excellent liquidity - ||||| good liquidity - ||||| low liquidity.

Stock name	Close	Percentage Change		Signal	Reversal Level/ SL	Last Month's
		1 day	20 days			High	Low
||||| ABFRL	175.40	3.00%	9.00%	BUY	161.70	174	147
||||| ADANITRANS	225.85	9.50%	10.00%	BUY	165.85	222	181
||||| AJANTPHARM	1503.55	2.50%	13.00%	BUY	1256.00	1408	1169
||||| ALEMBICLTD	53.50	13.00%	36.00%	BUY	39.15	44	38
||||| ANANTRAJ	67.75	6.00%	16.00%	BUY	55.05	66	52
||||| APOLLOTYRE	265.40	2.00%	4.50%	BUY	236.80	260	228
||||| ARSHIYA	115.05	9.50%	7.50%	BUY	86.10	114	76
||||| BAJAJFINSV	5353.35	0.50%	4.00%	BUY	4905.00	5349	4850
||||| BPCL	535.10	0.50%	5.50%	BUY	489.35	547	487
||||| BRFL	159.95	-4.50%	-3.00%	SELL	231.65	214	123
||||| BUTTERFLY	589.30	5.00%	44.50%	BUY	414.40	510	316
||||| CANFINHOME	509.30	7.00%	10.50%	BUY	450.00	495	431
||||| CEATLTD	1918.45	4.00%	5.50%	BUY	1695.60	1859	1672
||||| CESC	1052.25	4.00%	3.00%	BUY	972.00	1054	973
||||| CGPOWER	91.00	3.00%	5.00%	BUY	80.65	91	78
||||| CUMMINSIND	881.30	1.00%	2.50%	BUY	826.00	912	841
||||| DBCORP	339.65	-1.00%	-6.50%	SELL	374.00	379	357
||||| DBREALTY	43.60	19.50%	18.50%	BUY	34.25	39	34
||||| DIVISLAB	1086.15	2.00%	4.50%	BUY	999.05	1118	882
||||| DWARKESH	49.80	-3.00%	-21.50%	SELL	64.80	80	57
||||| EXIDEIND	221.20	2.50%	7.50%	BUY	200.10	215	195
||||| FCL	49.95	4.50%	39.00%	BUY	35.85	41	35
||||| GANESHHOUC	150.30	7.50%	14.50%	BUY	123.80	148	105
||||| GMRINFRA	19.85	8.00%	17.00%	BUY	16.30	20	16
||||| GODREJAGRO	574.15	1.50%	4.50%	BUY	535.25	583	522
||||| GSKCONS	6599.25	1.50%	9.00%	BUY	5955.00	6165	5110
||||| GVKPIL	16.80	5.00%	5.00%	BUY	14.45	20	14
||||| HIMATSEIDE	382.80	3.50%	16.00%	BUY	326.25	378	318
||||| HINDALCO	263.30	1.50%	3.00%	BUY	229.40	278	240
||||| IDEA	101.55	3.50%	5.50%	BUY	89.50	111	91
||||| IFCI	28.75	20.00%	16.50%	BUY	22.75	26	23
||||| INDIACEM	184.10	3.00%	4.50%	BUY	152.00	198	161
||||| INTELLECT	170.20	2.50%	18.50%	BUY	135.00	154	136
||||| IPCALAB	598.35	4.00%	10.50%	BUY	506.40	595	520
||||| IVC	33.75	8.00%	55.50%	BUY	21.00	29	16
||||| J&KBANK	78.35	1.00%	5.00%	BUY	71.00	84	73
||||| JAMNAAUTO	77.10	5.50%	20.50%	BUY	59.90	67	58
||||| JSLHISAR	228.45	9.00%	5.50%	BUY	196.90	239	194
||||| KALPATPOWR	480.55	2.50%	9.50%	BUY	418.80	475	370
||||| KARURVYSYA	124.85	2.00%	1.00%	BUY	111.15	133	112
||||| KNRCON	303.20	10.00%	9.50%	BUY	254.80	293	252
||||| LAURUSLABS	563.45	5.00%	5.50%	BUY	499.00	558	515
||||| LEEL	294.35	2.50%	2.00%	BUY	252.00	312	240
||||| LT	1258.80	2.00%	3.50%	BUY	1175.00	1275	1203
||||| MANAPPURAM	118.70	12.00%	15.50%	BUY	96.20	109	92
||||| MANINFRA	66.25	4.50%	8.50%	BUY	57.90	67	58
||||| MERCK	1286.35	1.50%	11.50%	BUY	1081.05	1210	1092
||||| MFSL	590.65	2.50%	4.00%	BUY	520.15	590	541
||||| MMFL	1183.80	7.00%	31.50%	BUY	855.00	931	820
||||| MPHASIS	751.60	3.00%	4.50%	BUY	699.05	775	680
||||| MRF	70860.55	2.50%	2.00%	BUY	65323.90	70500	63614
||||| MUTHOOTFIN	472.20	6.00%	4.00%	BUY	409.00	519	425
||||| NHPC	29.50	4.00%	9.00%	BUY	26.25	30	26
||||| OMAXE	225.55	4.50%	8.00%	BUY	202.55	218	204
||||| PIDILITIND	924.45	3.50%	9.50%	BUY	825.00	859	751
||||| QUICKHEAL	286.45	2.50%	23.50%	BUY	218.00	234	186
||||| RAMASTEEL	211.00	5.50%	14.50%	BUY	175.50	196	179
||||| RELCAPITAL	479.35	5.00%	6.50%	BUY	397.00	591	400
||||| RELINFRA	505.05	8.00%	12.00%	BUY	425.60	513	391
||||| REPCOHOME	690.90	1.50%	11.00%	BUY	599.80	676	550
||||| RICOAUTO	101.85	2.00%	6.00%	BUY	86.50	102	88
||||| SADBHAV	398.55	5.00%	10.50%	BUY	333.85	383	304
||||| SANGHIIND	128.90	1.50%	4.00%	BUY	111.00	137	114
||||| SARLAPOLY	66.10	7.50%	17.00%	BUY	49.95	60	52
||||| SETCO	66.00	4.00%	69.00%	BUY	39.10	46	38
||||| SICAL	252.35	3.50%	13.50%	BUY	212.50	251	204
||||| SIEMENS	1243.25	4.00%	4.00%	BUY	1119.45	1292	1159
||||| SRF	1946.80	1.50%	4.00%	BUY	1759.00	1910	1556
||||| SUNTV	982.90	4.50%	11.50%	BUY	826.65	916	827
||||| SUPREMEIND	1221.85	1.50%	8.00%	BUY	1098.50	1180	1096
||||| TAKE	164.60	2.50%	4.00%	BUY	151.90	179	150
||||| VAKRANGEE	392.05	2.50%	11.00%	BUY	346.08	371	258
||||| VASCONEQ	46.55	13.00%	29.50%	BUY	35.20	43	33
||||| VBL	578.75	8.00%	16.00%	BUY	492.55	545	486
||||| WSTCSTPAPR	320.10	6.50%	51.00%	BUY	206.50	244	185

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed flat at 10440
- AD was 2:1
- swing low support at 10000

Infographic: Blockchain explained in brief

F&O Transaction carried out through recognized Stock Exchange is not Speculative Transaction, can be set off against Ordinary Business Income: ITAT

“4.2. We find that the loss from F&O business carried out through recognized stock exchange cannot be treated as speculative loss in view of the exceptions carried out under s.43(5) of the Act. As per clause(d) of  first proviso to section 43(5) of the Act inserted by the Finance Act, 2005 with effect from 01/04/2006, trading in derivatives carried out through recognized stock exchange will not be deemed to be a speculative transaction for the purposes of section 43(5) of the Act. Thus, the loss arising from trading in derivatives ought to be treated as ordinary business loss. Thus, the restrictions applicable for eligibility of set off of loss of speculative nature will not apply to the loss arising from F&O transaction.”

7. Thus, F&O transaction carried out through recognized stock exchange cannot be treated as speculative transaction. Therefore, I allow appeal of the assessee and direct the AO to grant set off of this loss against business income.
Read more at http://www.taxscan.in/fo-transaction-carried-recognized-stock-exchange-not-speculative-transaction-can-set-off-ordinary-business-income-itat/15144/ and http://www.taxscan.in/preview/?previews=13Tv7HCWan8qNg4PvjdUxhjCPFpzyxaH7

Market outlook

Daily charts
- trend is up on daily charts
- today, NF closed 0.2% in negative at 10444
- AD was positive
- swing low/ option writing support at 10000
- minor call writing resistance appearing at 10500

The futility of asking how the market will fare

...The real reason why I don’t divulge what I actually do is because of the question that follows:

“Market kya lagta hai (what does the market look like)?”

This question has been my nemesis—at interviews as well as social gatherings. I really don’t think in terms of market levels and normally I don’t have a strong view on where the market is headed, but under societal pressure I regurgitate something about earnings and liquidity and macro and head straight for the buffet.

On a serious note, “Market kya lagta hai?”, at least in the Indian context, is a futile preoccupation. Sample this: MSCI India barely produced any return in dollar terms for 10 years between November 2007 and November 2017. If, in November 2007, one had gazed at the crystal ball and said that the market would yield nothing for the next 10 years, the statement would have been apocalyptic, but that’s what actually happened. And not even the staunchest bear would describe the last 10 years in Indian equity markets as apocalyptic.

That’s because over longer time horizons, money is made or lost in individual stocks whose performance does not have much to do with what the broad market does. Despite the lost decade for the headline index, 86 stocks, with market capitalization in excess of $500 million, quintupled over that time frame (multiplying five times in 10 years implies a healthy compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of over 17%) (Chart 1). We keep reiterating that our basic unit of thinking is stocks and not market averages. Like all investors, we own stocks in our portfolio and not index futures, which is why we do not obsess too much about broad market earnings and broad market valuations.

Read more at http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/rsXCcvE34h3x0xxaQTXk4H/The-futility-of-asking-how-the-market-will-fare.html

China: The person you are calling has been blacklisted by the courts for failing to repay their debts

China maintains a public blacklist of debtors that effectively restricts their movements and their spending habits.

The country's highest court publishes the names and ID numbers of "dishonest people" on its website and restricts those people from flying domestically, using high-speed trains, or enrolling their children at expensive private schools.

Defaulters are also prevented from staying at hotels with three-stars or more.

Read more at https://www.businessinsider.in/Debtors-in-China-are-placed-on-a-blacklist-that-prohibits-them-from-flying-buying-train-tickets-and-staying-at-luxury-hotels/articleshow/62143176.cms