NIFTY yearly charts

- the year has ended so here is the yearly chart
- trend is up on yearly charts
- no indication of weakness at all
- very good support around 6000 levels

NIFTY monthly charts

- markets in correction on monthly charts
- strong support developing around 7500 levels

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- today, markets closed in positive
- advance decline was flat
- note slower pace of rally as compared to fall from 8000 levels
- swing low support 7720 spot

NIFTY futures hourly charts

- trend is up on hourly charts

- through rally is slow, no signs of reversal as yet

- trailing SL/ new swing low around 7890 levels.

TVTODAY at lifetime high; up 30% this month

ADANIPOWER sustaining above 32 will be bullish

S&P 500 nearing upper end of channel

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- previous swing high around 8000 levels
- minor support around 7850 levels
- recent swing low around 7500 levels
- today, markets closed in the red. AD was negative.
- no clues from VIX
- tomorrow is expiry
- option writing resistance 8200 levels (JAN)

NIFTY futures hourly charts

- trend is up on hourly charts
- past 14 days, NF has gained barely 200 points
- expect support around 7885 F
- swing low around 7800 F

NIFTY futures 5 min charts

- first bar sets the tone for the day
- second box shows inability to sustain above 7930 F
- first short signal shown at arrow
- cover at close
- did nothing today

Nilesh Shah on why the right time to invest is now

Nilesh Shah, Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra AMC, shared his views during a panel discussion at the Morningstar Investment Conference held in Bengaluru.

On how the government has performed over the past 18 months and the reason for subdued corporate growth..

On whether equity investors should take the plunge right now or hold on, and whether they need to consider global stocks like Apple..

FIIs are movers of the markets. Is there going to be a time when domestic institutional investors are on par with FIIs?

Mutual funds add 2.5 mn PAN numbers so far in FY16

India's mutual fund industry has seen an addition of nearly 2.5 million new Permanent Account Numbers (PANs) in its kitty thus far this financial year. This essentially means that 2.5 million new individual investors have boarded the investment vehicle - the mutual funds - in a span of a eight months.

This is quite an achievement for mutual fund players who have been struggling for long to make their products readily acceptable to new investors. Thanks to the continuous investor awareness programmes across the country and engagement of fund managers with investors and distributors mutual funds are finding place in investor's portfolios.

According to sector's top officials, the total number of PAN attached with the mutual fund industry stands at 17 million as of now - almost half the number of tax payers in the country and around one-tenth of the total number of PAN allotted.

SMALL Cap index retesting recent highs 3rd time

CNX IT - sustaining above 11300 will be bullish

Buy signals

NIFTY EOD charts

- NF closes at day's high but forms a small doji
- advance decline negative
- NF has taken 11 days to gain 300 points
- option writing resistance 8200 JAN series.

2015 Ends At An Inflation Adjusted Nifty Even Lower Than 2010

By Deepak Shenoy

If you’re invested in the Nifty, you might think, that at 7,900 it’s way higher than the “highs” of 6300 in 2007. In reality, though, inflation has eaten through your returns, and how!

We measure the Nifty as adjusted for inflation – by adjusting what Rs. 10,000 could buy, using the CPI. The chart (red line) depicts the growth of Rs. 10,000 in constant purchasing power terms – that is, adjusted for the Consumer Price Index. We take the Nifty including Dividends reinvested, which is depicted in an

Read more at http://capitalmind.in/2015/12/2015-ends-at-an-inflation-adjusted-nifty-even-lower-than-2010

Elliott Wave Updates of Nifty for 29 Dec 2015 Onwards

Deepak Kumar | December 28, 2015

This Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Nifty for 29 Dec 2015 I am posting as updates on my yesterday’s report Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for Dec 2015 Expiry Week as outlook given in this report is almost failed.

Nifty opened flat today at 7963 but bounced sharply and traded with strength for whole day. Nifty bounced gradually to register day’s high of 7937 before closing 64 points up at 7925.

Yesterday I suggested selling with stoploss of 7889 which triggered within first 15 minutes of trade. Nifty also breached 7919 which was 61% projection I also suggested last stoploss for any shorts because I was not able to conclude the pattern after breaking above 7919. Now, let’s see what is there for coming days.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-updates-of-nifty-for-29-dec-2015-onwards/

Some interesting charts

ALL CARGO at lifetime high

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- swing low/ reversal level 7700
- today, advance decline marginally positive
- VIX up 4%
- option writing resistance seen around 8200 levels.

NIFTY futures hourly charts

- trend is up on hourly charts
- swing low/ support around 7800 levels.

NIFTY 5 min charts

- did nothing today like last week
- will do nothing this week
- nothing much happened on today's chart
- I have drawn box around first big bar of the day
- upper end of  box got retested as support several times a day

Warren Buffet: You make money on inactivity and not by doing something everyday

Source: alphaideas.com

Loss aversion and stock markets

Investors tend to focus obsessively on one investment that's losing money, even if the rest of their portfolio is in the black. 

This behavior is called loss aversion.

Investors have been shown to be more likely to sell winning stocks in an effort to "take some profits," while at the same time not wanting to accept defeat in the case of the losers. 

Philip Fisher wrote in his excellent book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits that, "More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could 'at least come out even' than from any other single reason."

Sweden introduces six-hour work day

Sweden is moving to a six-hour working day in a bid to increase productivity and make people happier.

Employers across the country have already made the change, according to the Science Alert website, which said the aim was to get more done in a shorter amount of time and ensure people had the energy to enjoy their private lives.

Toyota centres in Gothenburg, Sweden’s second largest city, made the switch 13 years ago, with the company reporting happier staff, a lower turnover rate, and an increase in profits in that time.

Difference between scale trading and reverse scale strategy

Scale Trading	Reverse Scale Strategy
Positions added only if stock declines.	Positions added only if stock increases.
Your average cost per share is always above the current market price after second purchase.	Your average cost per share is always below the current market price after second purchase.
Sacrifices large long-term gains for small short-term gains.	Sacrifices small short-term gains in order to realize large long-term gains.
Unlimited potential for loss.	Unlimited potential for gain.
Makes no attempt to cut losses. Adds to losing positions.	Cuts losses. Does not add to losing positions.
In a portfolio, automatically allocates majority of capital to worst-performing issues.	In a portfolio, automatically allocates majority of capital to best-performing issues.

Read more: Five Minute Investing: The Reverse Scale Strategy | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/university/fiveminute/fiveminute8.asp#ixzz3vOhW2Ms1 

Interesting reads

The Fed Has Created A "Monster" And Just Made A "Dangerous Mistake," Stephen Roach Warns

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2015 - 20:12

"By now, it’s an all-too-familiar drill. After an extended period of extraordinary monetary accommodation, the US Federal Reserve has begun the long march back to normalization. A majority of financial market participants applaud this strategy. In fact, it is a dangerous mistake."

Why 'The Regime' Hates Gold

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2015 - 20:10

There’s only one investment we can think of that many people either love or hate reflexively, almost without regard to market performance: gold. And, to a lesser degree, silver. It’s strange that these two metals provoke such powerful psychological reactions - especially among people who dislike them. Nobody has an instinctive hatred of iron, copper, aluminum, or cobalt. The reason, of course, is that the main use of gold has always been as money. And people have strong feelings about money. From an economic viewpoint, however, money is just a medium of exchange and a store of value. Efforts to turn it into a political football invariably are signs of a hidden agenda, or perhaps a psychological aberration. So, let’s take some recent statements, assertions, and opinions that have been promulgated in the media and analyze them.

Bernie Sanders: We Need A "Full And Independent Audit" Of The Federal Reserve

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2015 - 16:20

"Unfortunately, an institution that was created to serve all Americans has been hijacked by the very bankers it regulates.” 2016 Democratic presidential candidate and Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders said in an op-ed on Wednesday that a full independent audit of the Federal Reserve is necessary “to reign in Wall Street."

Past stock market performance tells you nothing about future results

Predicting what the stock market will do in the next 12 months is tantamount to predicting coin flips.

Even after what might feel like an already long bull market, it's a mistake to think that a lengthy duration is a sure-fire sign that stocks will soon fall.

"One common refrain we hear from skeptical investors is that bull markets typically last no more than five years, and thus the market is poised for a correction," Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Savita Subrmanian. "Our work shows that the length of bull markets has varied over time-from two years to nine years-and the dispersion of duration is quite high (a 2-year standard deviation)."

In other words, some bull markets will last a few years, and some will last many years.

What's particularly interesting is what Subramanian noticed about what five-year returns tell you about what'll happen next.

"We find no relationship between historical 5-year returns and subsequent 12-month returns," she wrote. Using some simple regression analysis, she found an R-square of 0.0002. That's about as low and R-square gets. (R-square is a statistical measure which reveals how well a regression line - the line of best fit you see - explains the relationship between two variables. The higher the R-square, the better that relationship is explained.)

BANK NIFTY weekly charts

- trend is down
- good support at 15800 levels

NIFTY weekly charts

- NF trading in channel and is halfway right now
- trading environment likely to remain frustrating for some time
- real action is outside the large caps/ index

NIFYT EOD charts

- trend is up but rally now lacking momentum
- nifty has barely gained 100 points this week
- support 7700 levels
- strong resistance around 8000 levels

NIFTY futures hourly charts

- trend is up on hourly charts but lack of momentum seen
- past 8-10 days, nifty has barely gained not even 200 points.
- this week's gain is barely 100 points
- dotted line represents support formed today.

NIFTY futures 5 min charts

- nifty opens above resistance 7880 F but fails to sustain
- small correction which breaks 7850 but immediately attracts buying
- closes back in range

Did nothing this week - last 2 days did not even switch on trading terminal!

Morning Star: Anoop Bhaskar on investing in mid caps

Anoop Bhaskar, Head-Equity, UTI AMC, shared his views during a panel discussion moderated by Kaustubh Belapurkar, Director of Fund Research at Morningstar India, at the Morningstar Investment Conference held in Mumbai.

1) What have been the reasons for the performance of mid- and small-cap stocks? Is it fundamental or flows driven?

2) The mid- and small-cap universe is fairly large. How do you identify the ones you would want to build your portfolio out of?

3) Going forward, do you see a lot of money flowing into the mid- and small-cap space?

4) How do you see really the government delivering on some of the reform agendas?

5) Do believe that the outlook of large-cap companies in India is fairly negative and it is time to focus on the mid- and small-cap segment?

Market outlook

- trend is up on daily charts
- minor swing low formed around 7720 spot
- deep support around 7500 levels
- today, advance decline was positive
- option writing resistance seen around 8000 levels

NIFTY futures hourly charts

- trend is up on daily charts
- swing low support around 7770 F

NIFTY futures 5 min charts

- intraday trend was up
- rangebound trading seen between 7860 and 7880 F
- difficult to make money today unless you were fast enough to buy after first bar

Famous failures

NIFTY EOD charts

- markets trading rangebound
- no follow through buying or selling seen w.r.t. previous days action
- advance decline flat today
- support seen around 7700 levels
- option writing not giving any clues

NIFTY futures hourly charts

- markets trading in a range past 2-3 days
- resistance around 7850 levels
- support seen in region 7730 to 7760

NIFTY futures 5 min charts

- initial trading range gets defined by 11am
- breakout from this range is bullish
- but signal to be ignored as buy comes near previous day's high
- markets unable to sustain at higher levels and correct
- missed the short trade.

Elliott Wave Outlook of Nifty for 22 to 24 Dec 2015

Deepak Kumar | December 21, 2015

Nifty opened flat today at 7745 and registered low of 7733 but bounced from lower levels and traded with strength for rest of the day to rise more than 100 points from day’s low. Finally Nifty closed 72 points up at 7834 after giving high of 7840.

Yesterday I suggested to buy Nifty if trades above opening price continuously between 9:30-9:45 AM using stoploss of low expecting minimum upside targets of 7811-7852. Nifty opened at 7745 and traded in 7750-7765 range between 9:30-9:45 AM and then bounced till 7840 without breaking low. It was a low risk trade with 20-25 points stoploss for minimum 55-90 point’s profit. Let’s have fresh look on latest charts.

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-outlook-of-nifty-for-22-to-24-dec-2015/

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 21-DEC-2015 

• Computer generated BUY and SELL signals.
• Signals are for your study only and are completely unsuitable for trading.
• Golden stoploss: min 10% or last month's low (long position).
• Do not risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
• All charts are provided by icharts.in

FCEL BUY signal

Settlement holidays/ dates

Received this email from RKSV.

>>>

On account of settlement holiday on December 24, 2015, multiple Settlements have been scheduled on December 29, 2015. Shares bought on December 23, 2015 cannot be sold on December 24, 2015 as trade done on both these days will be settled onDecember 29, 2015.

Kindly, note that the banks are also not operational from 24th December, 2015 to 27th December, 2015, so plan your withdrawals accordingly.

<<<

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on line charts
- today markets closed almost 1% in the positive
- advance decline was positive
- VIX dropped by 2% today
- resistance seen around 8000 levels
- support 7700-7500

NIFTY futures hourly charts

- trend is up on hourly charts
- swing reversal level increased to 7760 F

NIFTY futures 5 min charts

- breakout from initial trading range was bullish
- cover on close

Tata Motors only Indian firm on top-50 global R&D list

Tata Motors has entered the top-50 league of the world's biggest companies in terms of their R&D investments, topped by German automaker Volskwagen.

On the annual Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard for 2015, prepared by European Commission, Volkswagen is followed by Samsung, Microsoft, Intel and Novartis in the top-five.

Tata Motors has moved up from 104th position last year to 49th now and has also shown the largest increase in R&D (Research and Development) investments on the list. However, most of this R&D is at its UK subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover.

India is overall placed at 15th position in terms of the number of companies on the list.

Among other Indian companies, Dr Reddy's Laboratories is ranked 404th, M&M is at 451st, Reliance Industries at 540th, Lupin at 624th, Sun Pharma at 669th, Cipla at 831st and Infosys at 884th.

Critical levels on 15 min charts for some F&O stocks

I have started maintaining a database of  some 20 F&O stocks... selection criteria is simple - these are the top 20 most liquid futures stocks. Feeds are sourced from globaldatafeeds.in

Of this, I will be making a smaller watchlist of 5 stocks for my personal positional trades.

I am posting the levels - note that these are 15 minute charts. Also, I will not be giving calls or 'tips' - only posting the charts with the levels. Hopefully, over  a period of time, you will be able to identify the levels yourselves and trade.

NOTE: levels are not precise... these are indicated "regions or areas" of support or resistance. Also, I wait for bar completion before deciding a trade. Sometimes a support can break but if this attracts buying then one has to wait.

How does a typical US FDA warning letter look like

Every now and then, we read about some pharma stock tanking because of some US FDA related issue. At one time, it was Ranbaxy, then Dr Reddys, Sun Pharma and so on.

For lack of anything to do today, I visited the US FDA website and after some searching, I got the link for the warning letters issued in 2015.

The letters make some  interesting reading and show the depth to which the US FDA goes to ensure adherence to their standards.

You can see the latest letters issued here... there are many Indian companies.

S&P 500: Why 2000 must be defended at all costs

What a co-incidence.

Few minutes ago, I posted my views on S&P and indicated 2000 is the support as per lower trendline.

And then, I read this post on Zerohedge as to why 2000 must be defended at all costs!

Explaining Today's "Massive Stop Loss" Quad-Witching Market Waterfall: Why 2000 Must Be Defended At All Costs

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/18/2015 - 08:43

Levels to watch are the large imbalances in favor of puts in Dec SPX put contracts at 2050, 2000, 1950, 1900 strikes. It further writes that "as SPX moves below these levels market makers who are short these puts would be forced to sell spot futures to hedge, which could exacerbate a market selloff."

The "Quad witching" here refers to monthly and quarterly options (US markets) expiring on the same day. You can read more about this here.

My interpretation - S&P 500 is a buy on dips around 2000.

Does this impact Indian markets? Not at all.... but all the same, I noticed something very strange in our options markets.

S&P corrective move

S&P 500 index is trading within a falling channel. As of now, this is a slower retracement of the previous move (rally) so if this interpretation is true, it means more upside for this index.

The index should find support at the lower end of the channel - roughly 2000 levels.

Something strange in NIFTY open interest

- highest OI is at 8000 call meaning limited upsides

- persistent drop in 7500 pout OI

Does this mean rally/ upside is limited and 7500 may break?

If writers were bullish, they would be writing puts like they did the whole of this series (till 15th of this month).

NIFTY EOD charts

- trend is up on line charts and down on candlestick charts
- today markets closed in the negative
- advance decline was flat
- after 3 days of higher high higher low, today was first day of negative closing
- another 1-2 days of lower high lower low is permissible
- above will also define new swing high
- option writing resistance at 8000. Limited upsides?

NIFTY hourly charts

- trend is up on hourly charts
- swing low/ reversal level is 7740 F
- strong resistance expected around 8000 levels

NIFTY 5 min charts

- initial opening was weak/ negative
- break of initial trading range was short trade
- this was ignored as trend was strongly up
- if traded, there would have been a whipsaw unless SL was at day's high
- short trade could be considered in circled area (price action trading).

How The Fed Just Launched The Next Bear Market

Some interesting reads...

How The Fed Just Launched The Next Bear Market: BofA's Unexpected Conclusion In 8 Charts

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2015 - 17:10

"Rising rates and falling profits are not a good combination for asset prices, so we will turn sellers of risk in early 2016."

Dear Janet, Explain This!

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2015 - 19:30

Having been unable - or unwilling - to answer various reporters' questions with regard the 'odd' timing of The Fed's rate hike yesterday, we thought we would offer just one more chart to question the credibility of the central planners. Plucked from The Fed's own research, last week saw the largest surge in St.Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index (FSI) since August... and as Yellen proclaimed "all clear" the FSI was screaming "Danger" even louder than it did in September - when The Fed folded.

A Big, Fat "Policy Error" Or Worse? Find Out Tomorrow

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/17/2015 - 16:51

Did algos finally figure out precisely what we said first thing this morning, namely that the market completely ignored what was a hawkish hike, and that as a result, what Yellen has done, now that the kneejerk reaction is over, is policy error, pure and simple?

Maintain buy, on Mahindra & Mahindra, target Rs 1,535: Nomura

In a ruling on Wednesday the Supreme Court of India banned registration of diesel cars and SUVs larger than 2000cc in the National Capital Region (NCR) until 31 March 2016. This is to address concerns of high air pollution in Delhi. The decision will affect M&M as 2% of its auto sector volumes in FY15 came from vehicles that would be covered by the ban. The auto sector contributed ~60% of M&M’s standalone revenues in FY15, thus the revenue impact we estimate will be ~1.2%.

With the stock is already down 5% on this news today and core auto business trading at ~11.3x FY17F EPS for M&M+MVML (Rs 69.9) we believe that above concerns are priced in. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.

Read more at http://www.financialexpress.com/article/markets/indian-markets/maintain-buy-on-mahindra-mahindra-target-rs-1535-nomura/180473/