October 30, 2015

Golden words which you can ignore

>>>
A manager has to avoid committing large mistakes. It's important to differentiate between what is risky and what's value. Laziness and bias, both, can pose serious challenges to portfolio performance. Extreme rigour is needed to be able to discern opportunities in sectors facing headwinds. Our market is rewarding growth as it is scarce. So, while value is important, one can't lose sight from the near-term growth outlook a particular sector or company has.
<<<

All empty talk loaded with tons of management jargon - means nothing.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/frequent-revisiting-of-investments-a-must-madhusudan-kela-115100700840_1.html

BANK NIFTY monthly charts

- trend is down on monthly charts
- buy above level is 19100
- next support 15800 and then 13400

NIFTY monthly charts

- trend is down on monthly charts
- reversal level is close above 8650 spot
- last month's hammer failed to create any follow thru buying in OCT.

NIFTY weekly charts

- markets down 2.8% this week
- upper trendline continues to offer stiff resistance
- last time this happened, mkts spend a month at this upper trendline
- lower end of trendline support now below 7500
- Will 7500 break this month?

Market outlook

- markets close below my trailing SL
- so now trend is down.
- swing high / top is 8335.
- support range 8000-8100 spot.
- big caveat is rangebound mkt for 2-3 weeks can make a mockery of levels
- advance decline negative today
- option writing support 8000 and resistance 8500.

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- breakout from first box was bullish
- this got converted to short trade on break below 8080 F
- price action traders would have gone long on breakout from first small box (first arrow)
- followed by short at second box or break of SL (8080)
- other 2 lines are trailing SL.

10 Price Action Tips That Will Make You a Better Swing Trader

Price action for swing traders is the art of looking at individual candles to determine the probable direction of a stock - without using any technical indicators.

Ultimately, analyzing price action tells you who is in control of a stock. It also tells you who is losing control: the buyers or the sellers. Once you are able to determine this, you can pinpoint reversals in a stock and make money.

Learn the price action tips on this page and I guarantee you that you will be a better swing trader.

Let's begin - http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/price-action.html?vfmdirect.in

October 29, 2015

Stocks breaking recent supports

GPPL

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 29-OCT-2015

Computer generated BUY and SELL signals.
Signals are for your study only and are completely unsuitable for trading.
Golden stoploss: min 10% or last month's low (long position).
Do not risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
All charts are provided by icharts.in

ADVANTA SELL signal

Market outlook

- markets close 0.7% in negative

- advance decline was mildly negative

- third day ow "lower high lower low" formation

- over all trend is still up

- support around 8000-8080 levels

- option writing support at 8000 and resistance 8500 NOV series.

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- break of initial trading range was short signal
- cover at close; mildly profitable trade

October 28, 2015

Axis Bank Sold 1820 cr. of Loans at 65% Loss to ARCs, Drags Down Stock 7%

Axis Bank has fallen majorly today. It fell from 521 yesterday to 482 today, a fall of 7.5%. There’s a good reason: the worries about asset quality.

In their conference call, they mentioned that they sold loans to Asset Recovery Companies (ARCs). These are typically companies that buy bad assets from banks and then attempt to recover those loans.

During the quarter, it has emerged from the Conference call and probably inadvertantly mentioned, that:

IND HOTEL weekly charts

INDUSINDBK fails to break resistance on 4th attempt; down 3% today

ADANIPORTS strong support at 290 levels

BHARATFORGE retesting 2015 lows/ support/ low risk trade

AXISBANK reverses from resistance; next support 440

SRF still bullish SL 1240

NCC waiting for breakout

INTELLECT up 15%, new high

BANK NIFTY down 2.4% today

Market outlook

- trend is up on daily charts
- reversal level is 8080 spot.
- today markets opened gap down but buying was seen in later part of the day.
- incidentally this is second day of "lower high lower low" formation
- hopefully tomorrow markets should recover
- option writing support at 8000 and resistance 8500 (NOV series).

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- break of initial trading range was short signal
- price action traders would have initiated short in small / square box
- horizontal lines denote trailing stoploss

Revised F&O lot sizes (NOV series and beyond)

Source: http://nseindia.com/content/circulars/FAOP30449.pdf

Warren Buffett: Why hedge funds fail

You might be surprised to see occasional headlines bemoaning the poor performance of hedge funds versus the market indexes. Not Warren Buffett.

Hedge fund managers serve two masters: their clients and themselves. That sounds like a solid alignment of interests, but it's not, the billionaire investor says. That's because hedge fund chiefs get paid win or lose.

The fixed annual fees hedge funds charge are the real money-makers, not the contractual "bonuses" for performance. By extension, Buffett is making a statement about active managers of all kinds. They're not in the business of beating the market. They're in the business of attracting assets and that's all.

For example, a hedge fund managing $1 billion charges a fee of 2% of those assets per year plus 20% of trading profits.

Let's assume the fund breaks even — no profits. That's still $20 million in fees. When a hedge fund controls $20 billion, the income is $400 million.

Bargain Hunters Beware: Is the Rally for Real?

Jeffrey Kleintop

- October 26, 2015

Key Points

Don’t mistake the double-digit rebounds seen in some emerging markets this month as an all-clear sign to snap up bargains.
Just because stocks in Brazil, South Africa, and Russia are inexpensive doesn’t mean they are bargains.
However, long-term investors may find value in the growing emerging economies of India, Mexico, Taiwan, and South Korea.

October 27, 2015

PFC bullish above 250

OIL breaks support

NMDC rectangle

LUPIN breaks support

ITC still bullish

BHEL bullish above 220

BANK BARODA near support

BAJAJ FINSRV breakout

AUROPHARMA new lifetime high

ACC rectangle

HDFC very less than ordinary results

HDFC Posts Slowest EPS Growth In 5 Years, And That Too Propped Up By Dividend

By Deepak Shenoy|October 26th, 2015|Categories: Charts, HDFC, Results|0 Comments

HDFC’s results have been less than ordinary this time around. VERY less than ordinary. Consolidated results are the worst we’ve seen in a while.

We saw a 8% increase in revenues, but only a 4.4% increase in profits before tax. And the EPS was flat!

RBI Allows up to 74% Foreign Investment in DEN Networks

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India has allowed foreign investors to raise their stake up to 74 per cent in DEN Networks.

"Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)/Registered Foreign Portfolios Investors (RFPIs) can now invest up to 74 per cent of the paid up capital of DEN Networks Limited under the Portfolio Investment Scheme (PIS)," the RBI said in a notification.

The central bank said the decision came after the company passed resolutions at its board of directors level and a special resolution by the shareholders, agreeing for enhancing the limit for the purchase of its equity shares and convertible debentures by FIIs/RFPIs.

FIIs, NRIs and PIOs (persons of Indian origins) can invest in primary and secondary capital markets in India through PIS.

The RBI monitors the ceilings on FII/NRI/PIO investments in Indian companies on a daily basis and has fixed the cut-off points two percentage points lower than the actual ceiling.

October 26, 2015

Hot stocks and charts

LAST updated: 26-OCT-2015

Computer generated BUY and SELL signals.
Signals are for your study only and are completely unsuitable for trading.
Golden stoploss: min 10% or last month's low (long position).
Do not risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
All charts are provided by icharts.in

BAJAJ AUTO BUY signal

Doji on NIFTY yearly charts

If you had gone on a long vacation at the start of this year and come back now ....

... you would have missed nothing.

Market outlook

- loss of momentum seen in daily charts
- markets nearing strong resistance around 8400
- above this, next resistance around 8600 levels
- I think rally is done for this upmove
- let us see how weekly close is

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- funny trade NF 8724 high messes up charts

Line charts provide clarity here

What will happen is more important than when it will happen - Warren Buffet

This year, a lot of Warren Buffet's stocks have grossly under performed the US market. Walmart down 30%, then Procter & Gamble and American Express with losses of 18% and 17% respectively.

Warren’s other favourite stocks like IBM, Wells Fargo, Bancorp, Goldman Sachs, Coca-Cola, etc have also put up a poor show in 2015.

Now, the important question is why Warren Buffett is hanging on to the losing stocks.

The answer is to be found in an old lecture that Warren Buffett gave to a group of students.

Nifty Elliott Wave Outlook for Oct 2015 Expiry Week

Deepak Kumar | October 25, 2015

In my last weekly Elliott Wave Analysis report of Nifty we expected Nifty to achieve minimum 8298 on upside and if even touch 8322 then possibilities will be open for 8450-8550. Nifty finally managed to break 8298 on Friday with gap up after a week long struggle and also breached 8322 opening the possibilities for higher levels. Let’s have fresh look at latest chart to see what is there for nifty in Oct 2015 expiry week.

Today I am covering Nifty move after 29 Sep 2015 low 7691 which I am expecting as start of wave (C or 3) explained in my previous report Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week commencing 19 Oct 2015. Previous counts are same as I explained in this report. Also read my complimentary report Is Nifty Heading for New High or New Low – Elliott Wave Analysis which I published on 24 Oct 2015 to understand this report better.

AFL to identify top gainers and losers

This AFL will show stocks gaining or losing more than 5% on daily charts.

Volume filter is predefined at 5 crores (50 day average) - you can change this via the parameters dialog box.

This is the AFL

no=Param("Vol in crores",5,0,500,5);
Filter=MA(C,50)*MA(V,50)>10000000*no AND abs(ROC(C,1))>5;
AddColumn(C,"Close",1.2);
AddColumn(ROC(C,1),"ROC_1D %",1.2);
AddColumn(MA(C,50)*MA(V,50)/10000000,"Vol Cr",1.0);

This is the output

SEBI wants mutual funds to join e-commerce bandwagon

NEW DELHI, OCT 25:

As an ever-growing number of consumers flock to e-commerce websites for their shopping needs, regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is considering allowing sale of mutual funds through these platforms to deepen this market.

The mutual fund industry has been growing considerably over the last few years and currently has assets under management of over Rs. 13 lakh crore, but it has been felt that a huge growth opportunity remains untapped especially among the retail investors.

To make it easier for investors to buy mutual funds in a cost-effective manner, SEBI is now looking into suggestions to allow sale of these schemes on e-commerce platforms, sources said.

SEBI chairman U K Sinha, who himself was heading leading fund house UTI Mutual Fund before becoming chief of the capital markets watchdog in 2011, recently met representatives from e-commerce and other technology platforms.

BSE now eyes 200 nano second trading speed in 3 yrs

Initially, the trading system was providing 200 micro seconds response time.

MUMBAI, OCT 25:

After clocking a record trading speed of six micro seconds, leading stock exchange BSE is aiming for a much faster speed of 200 nano seconds for the trades executed on its platform, in the next three years.

Earlier this month, BSE had said it has became the world’s fastest stock exchange clocking a median trade speed of six micro seconds.

“We are now having a target of going for 200 nano seconds to be achieved in next three years,” BSE CIO Kersi Tavadia told PTI.

“We give time stamp (for trade execution) in nano seconds today in hope to achieve our next target,” Tavadia added.

Is Nifty Heading for New High or New Low – Elliott Wave Analysis

Deepak Kumar | October 24, 2015

“Is Nifty heading for new high or new low” or “ what is the whole corrective pattern going on from 9117” are the queries I am getting from subscribers as well as students. Though I tried to explain it in my last weekly analysis report published on 19 Oct 2015 but I think I failed to make them understand as still I am getting same question as well as suggestions about pattern.

So, today I tried to explain all the possibilities separately on same charts one by one. And I need to analyze Nifty wave counts from all time high 9117 to get answer of these questions. I had given three possibilities for this whole pattern started from 9117 in my last report Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week Commencing 19 Oct 2015. These were:

Either this correction already completed at 7541 as “Double Zigzag” as (abc-x-abc). 9117-7997 as 1^st abc, 7997-8655 as wave ‘X’ and 8655-7541 as 2^nd “abc”. Nifty can go for new high in this case but step by step.

Or this correction may turn into triple zigzag where (abc-x-abc) is already completed and (–x-abc) is still pending. Nifty can rise till 8450-8550 (Minimum till upper blue line) in this case followed by sharp decline for 7541 and below. This possibility will be negated after break above 8655.

Or this is a normal ‘abc’ correction going on and Nifty can go below 7541 again but this possibility will negate after break above 8322.

Out of these three possibilities, possibility no. 3 has been negated at Nifty broke 8322 on Friday. So, let’s analyze what is there on latest charts.

October 24, 2015

Massive crack down on hoarders; nearly 75,000 tonnes of pulses seized in 13 states

NEW DELHI: Nearly 75,000 tonnes of pulses have been seized from hoarders in raids across 13 states as part of the measures to control the skyrocketing retail prices that have touched up to Rs 210 per kg.

The Centre has also asked the states to hold discussions with dal millers, whole-sellers and retailers to make pulses available at reasonable prices.

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/49518641.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

India's first double-decker Shatabdi train to run between Mumbai, Goa

PANAJI: Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu has announced that the Railways would soon start country's first-ever double decker Shatabdi Express that would ply between Mumbai and Goa.

"One double decker AC train between Mumbai and Goa should run as Shatabdi. We will make it happen as soon as possible. This would become the first-ever double decker Shatabdi," Prabhu said on the sidelines of an event at the Goa University yesterday.

Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/49518823.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

How to identify trendline breakouts in Amibroker

This post focuses on a very powerful feature of Amibroker - the ability to identify hand drawn trendline breakouts.

Following chart is of INFY and I have drawn 3 trendlines... the red is for resistance (RE), blue for support (SU) and the black line is the standard trendline (TE).

For various reasons, you may want to know when the stock crosses the resistance or breaks the support or crosses the black trendline.

WHO WILL DRIVERLESS CARS DECIDE TO KILL?

October 23, 2015

NIFTY weekly charts

- nifty continues to trade within the falling channel
- it is currently near the upper end of the channel so expect resistance here
- difficult to visualise what can happen at current levels

Market outlook

- trend is up on daily charts
- reversal level is around 8080 spot
- today markets opened gap up but formed a doji/ spinning top
- spinning top does not mean anything much
- advance decline was negative

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- nifty opened gap up but first min high was never crossed during the day
- break of initial trading range did not lead to any downside

Hourly charts still confirm trend as up

RBI hikes FII limit to 74% in Shriram Transport

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has today notified that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and registered foreign portfolios investors (RFPIs) of Shriram Transport Finance can now invest up to 74% of the paid up capital.

The RBI said, "The foreign shareholding by FIIs/RFPIs in Shriram Transport Finance have gone below the revised threshold limit. Hence, the restrictions placed on the purchase of shares of the above company are withdrawn with immediate effect."

Read more at http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/storyShow.php?fileR=20151023115332199

Banks free to fix interest rates on gold deposit scheme: RBI

Reserve Bank today issued guidelines for the Gold Monetisation Scheme that allow banks to fix their own interest rates on gold deposits.

The gold deposit scheme is aimed at mobilising a part of an estimated 20,000 tonnes of idle precious metal with households and institutions.

As per the guidelines, banks will be free to set interest rate on such deposit, and principal and interest of the deposit will be denominated in gold.

Read more at http://www.financialexpress.com/article/industry/banking-finance/banks-free-to-fix-interest-rates-on-gold-deposit-scheme-rbi/155359/

Elliott Wave Report of Nifty for 23 Oct 2015

Deepak Kumar | October 22, 2015

Nifty opened flat at 8258 on Wednesday and traded with positive bias till afternoon session to register day’s high of 8294 but again fell sharply without achieving 8298. Nifty declined almost 80 points from high in just 60 minutes followed by recovery before closing 9 points down at 8251. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts now.

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Nifty covering move after 29 Sep low 7691 which I am expecting as start of wave (C or 3).

Read more at http://sweeglu.com/elliott-wave-report-of-nifty-for-23-oct-2015/

Taxes are why long term passive is better than short term trading

In my last post, where I linked the Peter Brandt interview, I was myself surprised by how big a investment of just a hundred thousand could turn out to be. Since the results are said to be audited, I have no doubt that the numbers are real. What I missed though is the impact of taxes and how they can literally destroy long term gains.

World over, Short term capital gains is taxed more than Long term capital gains. While in India, Long term tax is free, if you were to generate majority of Income via trading, your Income could be treated as Business Income and taxed at the appropriate slab.

As I wrote in my previous post, if you are able to generate 41.6% year on year (compounded), a investment of just a Lakh would turn out to be worth more than 340 Crores. But how much impact do taxes have? The calculations really surprised me as the damage, especially if taxation is high can hit really hard on the eventual pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Read more at http://www.portfolioyoga.com/wp/the-impact-of-taxes/

Nobel Prize Winner Angus Deaton Says There Are Discrepancies in India’s Economic Data

Something I suspected for some time as the reported GDP figures are not showing up at the ground level.

When India’s statisticians revised their economic output figures earlier this year, they vaulted the country to the top of the global growth leagues – and also prompted some to wonder about the soundness of their numbers.

More In Economy

Angus Deaton, who won this year’s Nobel Prize for economics, in part for his work measuring the poverty rate in India, says he hasn’t followed details of the latest changes in how India tallies its gross domestic product. But he said questions about Indian data are nothing new.

In an interview with news channel NDTV, he pointed to what he said were “very serious discrepancies” between numbers collected to calculate GDP and the information collected by the National Sample Survey on household spending and consumption.

October 22, 2015

Question: Why There Are Few Sell Ratings On Wall Street

Why are there so few sell recommendations on Wall Street?

This has been a matter of much debate in the media, and with good reason. Read on and discover the answer to this popular question - you may be surprised!

Bull Market Explanation
The current view is that analysts tend to be wildly optimistic and possibly criminal in how they rate stocks during a bull market. Researchers have published data showing that, during the late 1990s, sell ratings were as scarce as value investors. And while the ratio of sell ratings to other ratings has increased since then, the sells remain in the minority.

Question: Difference between sell-side and buy-side analysts

The main difference between these two types of analysts is the type of firm that employs them and the people to whom they make recommendations.

A sell-side analyst works for a brokerage or firm that manages individual accounts and makes recommendations to the clients of the firm. Sell-side analysts are those who issue the often-heard recommendations of "strong buy", "outperform", "neutral" or "sell". These recommendations help clients make decisions to buy and/or sell certain stocks. This is beneficial for the brokerage because every time a client makes a decision to trade stock, the brokerage gets a commission on the transactions.

Watch these top gainers tomorrow

NECLIFE

- above table shows interest earned on Re.1/-
- the longer you stay invested, the more the exponential growth in your capital
- the earlier you start investing, the more you earn provided you reinvest your earnings
- reinvestment of interest is crucial; it is only here the compounding works
- note that it will become increasingly difficult to invest higher sums later on

Mission Impossible: beating the market over long periods of time

We all hear about quantitative strategies that are supposed to earn us 20%, 25%, or even 30%+ returns over long periods by simply “maintaining discipline to the strategy.”

This is possible with small capital but as the capital increases and the number of years increases, it becomes more and more difficult to consistently earn higher returns.

Earning 20%+ returns over very long horizons is for all intent and purposes virtually IMPOSSIBLE (assuming the market experience of the past ~90 years is representative of the future).
31.5%+ returns over the 1926 to 2010 period imply that an investor will end up owning over half of the ENTIRE stock market.
33%+ returns imply that an investor will end up owning the ENTIRE STOCK MARKET!
A 40% return will have you owning the entire stock market in ~60 years–not a bad retirement plan!
A “doable” 21.5% a year implies an investor will own .62241% of the market at the end of 2010. With a $16.4 trillion total market value as of December 31, 2010, this would imply a personal stock portfolio worth $102 billion!!!
Warren Buffett–and perhaps a very select handful of others–have been able to achieve 20%+ returns over very long time periods. These individuals represent some of the richest people on the planet because of this very phenomenon.
An investor might have an epic run of 20% returns for 5, 10, maybe even 15, or 20 years, but as an investor’s capital base grows exponentially, the capital base slowly becomes ALL capital, and all capital cannot outperform itself!

I think the startups place is getting overheated

Heart Sutra by Imee Ooe - my favorite song/ video

Indian Railways may go into ‘debt-trap, become Air India’

Indian Railways, the country’s largest employer, may go into a ‘debt-trap’ and ‘become an Air India’ due to the present Suresh Prabhu-led ministry’s policy of borrowing, former rail minister Dinesh Trivedi said while sounding a strong note of caution on the issue of a dip in its revenue.

“I think Indian Railways is absolutely in the dumps… railways is going the Air India way, in short. You can perhaps live without Air India, but not without Indian Railways,” he told PTI on the sidelines of an event late last evening.

“You would be in a debt trap. Absolute debt trap,” warned Trivedi, who was replaced as Indian Railways minister by the previous UPA government after he presented what analysts had welcomed as being a reformist budget.

Saudis Risk Draining Financial Assets in 5 Years, IMF Says

Saudi Arabia may run out of financial assets needed to support spending within five years if the government maintains current policies, the International Monetary Fund said, underscoring the need of measures to shore up public finances amid the drop in oil prices.

The same is true of Bahrain and Oman in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, the IMF said in a report on Wednesday. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have relatively more financial assets that could support them for more than 20 years, the Washington-based lender said.

Saudi authorities are already planning spending cuts as the world’s biggest oil exporter seeks to cut its budget deficit. Officials have repeatedly said that the kingdom’s economy, the Arab world’s biggest, is strong enough to weather the plunge in crude prices as it did in similar crises, when its finances were under more strain.

Read more at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/saudis-risk-draining-financial-assets-in-five-years-imf-says

October 21, 2015

Market outlook

- trend is up on daily charts
- reversal level around 8090 spot
- advance decline flat today
- option writing support 8200 resistance 8300 - this is a very small range
- weekly charts not encouraging at this point

NIFTY futures intraday charts

- breakout above first box/ initial trading range was bullish
- markets show inability to sustain above previous day's high (horizontal line)
- break below 2nd box was short signal
- cover on break above 3rd box
- not trading of late because of small ranges and whipsaws

Hourly charts show lots of over lapping ranges... consider support at 8210 F

October 20, 2015

Trading is an ongoing education

Trading is an ongoing education.

But like all other forms of education, a tuition has to be paid. When you make money, that’s great.

When you start losing money, that’s the tuition you pay to learn.

And the market gets to determine the tuition, you don’t get to determine it.

Peter Brandt

October 30, 2015

10 Price Action Tips That Will Make You a Better Swing Trader

October 29, 2015

October 28, 2015

Bargain Hunters Beware: Is the Rally for Real?

Key Points

October 27, 2015

HDFC Posts Slowest EPS Growth In 5 Years, And That Too Propped Up By Dividend

October 26, 2015

October 25, 2015

October 24, 2015

October 23, 2015

October 22, 2015

October 21, 2015

October 20, 2015

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