May 30, 2015
May 29, 2015
May 28, 2015
Banking stocks which have corrected the least
Logically, in the event of any rally, these stocks should do well. You can identify other stocks in different sectors.
Just ensure that all stocks are highly liquid, that you have identified an SL before you take a trade and you do not risk more than 1% of your capital on any single trade.
Just ensure that all stocks are highly liquid, that you have identified an SL before you take a trade and you do not risk more than 1% of your capital on any single trade.
May 27, 2015
Market outlook
- markets form third day of lower high lower low
- within this, markets opened gapdown but closed near day's high
- advance decline was however negative
- key levels tomorrow will be 8250 spot and 8350 spot
- some more downside possible if 8250 breaks
- option writing JUN series support 8000 resistance 8800
- within this, markets opened gapdown but closed near day's high
- advance decline was however negative
- key levels tomorrow will be 8250 spot and 8350 spot
- some more downside possible if 8250 breaks
- option writing JUN series support 8000 resistance 8800
NIFTY futures intraday charts
- did not trade short because of strong nearby supports
- lower tails did not encourage short trades
- breakout above first box was first long trade
- this gave no profit no loss
- aggressive long trade would be at 5th or 6th bar.
- strong intraday recovery negated any short trade consideration
- did nothing the whole day as markets were rangebound
- lower tails did not encourage short trades
- breakout above first box was first long trade
- this gave no profit no loss
- aggressive long trade would be at 5th or 6th bar.
- strong intraday recovery negated any short trade consideration
- did nothing the whole day as markets were rangebound
May 26, 2015
Nifty Companies Aggregate Profits Have Fallen 21%
Source: http://capitalmind.in/2015/05/nifty-companies-aggregate-profits-have-fallen-21-even-if-you-ignore-the-mammoth-loss-by-sterlite
Nifty results continue to be HORRIBLE. I can’t even begin to tell you how bad the situation is, but see this today. Three Nifty companies announced results. And they were like this:
BHEL saw consolidated profits fall 59%
Tata Motors saw consolidated profits fall by 56%
Tech Mahindra saw consolidated profits fall by 39%
Even RBI is starting to say the worst is yet to come. Whatever happens, don’t ignore your stop losses. And remember that in such a market, investing in a consistently profitable company is probably even more important than ever before.
Nifty results continue to be HORRIBLE. I can’t even begin to tell you how bad the situation is, but see this today. Three Nifty companies announced results. And they were like this:
BHEL saw consolidated profits fall 59%
Tata Motors saw consolidated profits fall by 56%
Tech Mahindra saw consolidated profits fall by 39%
Even RBI is starting to say the worst is yet to come. Whatever happens, don’t ignore your stop losses. And remember that in such a market, investing in a consistently profitable company is probably even more important than ever before.
Avoid stocks with low liquidity
In a rally, it is always easy to buy most stocks. However in times of correction, liquidity suddenly vanishes.
Look at AXISCADES... stock had a nice run up from 200 to 400 levels but a much faster fall from 400 to 200. Needless to say, stock opened and closed at lower circuit 12 days in past 2 months (there was no upper circuit during the rally).
My general rule is to focus on stocks having 20 days average volume above Rs.20 crores. This gives a universe of 160 stocks and is more than enough for any trader/ investor.
Look at AXISCADES... stock had a nice run up from 200 to 400 levels but a much faster fall from 400 to 200. Needless to say, stock opened and closed at lower circuit 12 days in past 2 months (there was no upper circuit during the rally).
My general rule is to focus on stocks having 20 days average volume above Rs.20 crores. This gives a universe of 160 stocks and is more than enough for any trader/ investor.
Market outlook
- trend down on daily charts as markets form 'lower high lower low' for second day
- advance decline negative
- 61.8% retracement for this correction gives approx target 8200
- option writing clues point to support at 8000 and resistance at 9000 (JUN series).
- above means chances of higher swing low followed by rally.
- advance decline negative
- 61.8% retracement for this correction gives approx target 8200
- option writing clues point to support at 8000 and resistance at 9000 (JUN series).
- above means chances of higher swing low followed by rally.
May 25, 2015
Market outlook
- we have a sell on nifty spot as index breaks 2-3 days low
- enough warnings in past few days specially the breadth
- expect more weakness below 8200 spot
- this correction can lead to formation of higher swing low
- this means assuming 8000 holds in JUNE we can expect new highs
- option writing supports this view with initial writing levels at 8000 put 9000 call
- this is a huge range
- enough warnings in past few days specially the breadth
- expect more weakness below 8200 spot
- this correction can lead to formation of higher swing low
- this means assuming 8000 holds in JUNE we can expect new highs
- option writing supports this view with initial writing levels at 8000 put 9000 call
- this is a huge range
NIFTY futures intraday charts
- initial bias was bearish as markets broke previous day's support
- action in first 4-5 bars of the day (first box) showed no buying support from bulls
- break of support followed by no buying means one can take short with SL at day's high
- trailing SL shifted down during day
- exit at close.
- tomorrow, consider long above 8400F only.
- action in first 4-5 bars of the day (first box) showed no buying support from bulls
- break of support followed by no buying means one can take short with SL at day's high
- trailing SL shifted down during day
- exit at close.
- tomorrow, consider long above 8400F only.
May 23, 2015
How to take food from a pride of lions without a fight
And the stock markets are no different. While confidence is what you need, risk management is obviously important.
May 22, 2015
NIFTY intraday futures chart
- did not trade as I was out of market whole day
- there were 2 buy signals today
- first on breakout above small inner box (if you are following only today's chart)
- second on breakout above bigger box (if you following historical intraday charts as well)
- long trade got stopped on break of 8460 F
- the first (early) long trade was slightly profitable
- the second (late) long trade was in loss
- candlesticks would have warned of break of 8460F if one studies patterns
- finer entry/ exit is possible on 1 min or 3 min chart at cost of more trades/ whipsaws
- there were 2 buy signals today
- first on breakout above small inner box (if you are following only today's chart)
- second on breakout above bigger box (if you following historical intraday charts as well)
- long trade got stopped on break of 8460 F
- the first (early) long trade was slightly profitable
- the second (late) long trade was in loss
- candlesticks would have warned of break of 8460F if one studies patterns
- finer entry/ exit is possible on 1 min or 3 min chart at cost of more trades/ whipsaws
May 20, 2015
NIFTY futures intraday charts
- breakout above first swing high (small thick line) was bullish
- but this brings entry level close to previous day's high
- so it makes sense not to do anything (in hindsight)
- long trade here get stopped out at no profit no loss
- short trade does not make sense
- overall a day for brokers and not traders.
- but this brings entry level close to previous day's high
- so it makes sense not to do anything (in hindsight)
- long trade here get stopped out at no profit no loss
- short trade does not make sense
- overall a day for brokers and not traders.
May 19, 2015
NIFTY futures intraday charts
- ignore first bar of the trade as it is a freak trade
- breakout out from initial trading range was buy signal
- close below 8405F was exit call for long position
- short trade not considered as overall bias was bullish
- in hindsight, big bar breaking SL could be considered as possible trend reversal intraday
- breakout out from initial trading range was buy signal
- close below 8405F was exit call for long position
- short trade not considered as overall bias was bullish
- in hindsight, big bar breaking SL could be considered as possible trend reversal intraday
May 18, 2015
NIFTY futures intraday charts
- breakout above 8290F was bullish
- however this signal could be ignored because of trendline resistance on hourly charts
- next breakout was above 8325F (day's high).
- this was profitable with no whipsaws
Today there was a drop of 10% in VIX - this meant profits in call options were limited. For eg., options at 2.10pm were cheaper than at 10.30am even while nifty was at same level.
- however this signal could be ignored because of trendline resistance on hourly charts
- next breakout was above 8325F (day's high).
- this was profitable with no whipsaws
Today there was a drop of 10% in VIX - this meant profits in call options were limited. For eg., options at 2.10pm were cheaper than at 10.30am even while nifty was at same level.
May 17, 2015
1929 The Great Crash. - a video
Nothing has changed except the people. But the emotions of greed, fear, hope etc remain the same.
May 16, 2015
With or without Modi, markets will blast
All media is talking of one year performance after Modi.
Ignore this analysis, news and views... it has no value if you are a smart trader/ investor.
See the chart... can you tell who was what, where and when?
The best rally happened from 2003 to 2008 (no one remembers this). After that it was consolidation and thereafter a breakout.
It is normal for a breakout level to be retested so we can have a correction followed by a super rally.
Irrespective of who is in power....
Ignore this analysis, news and views... it has no value if you are a smart trader/ investor.
See the chart... can you tell who was what, where and when?
The best rally happened from 2003 to 2008 (no one remembers this). After that it was consolidation and thereafter a breakout.
It is normal for a breakout level to be retested so we can have a correction followed by a super rally.
Irrespective of who is in power....
May 15, 2015
Alan Greenspan quote on beating the market
This decade is strewn with examples of bright people who thought they had built a better mousetrap that could consistently extract an abnormal return from financial markets.
Some succeeded for a time.
But while there may occasionally be misconfigurations among market prices that allow abnormal returns, they do not persist.
Some succeeded for a time.
But while there may occasionally be misconfigurations among market prices that allow abnormal returns, they do not persist.
May 14, 2015
Market outlook
- trend is down on daily and weekly charts
- reversal value is 8350-8400 on daily charts
- support is at 8000 below which monthly trend can turn down
- watch for triangle development in hourly charts (separate post on this)
- possible inverted H&S though a weak one as right shoulder is bigger than left!
- reversal value is 8350-8400 on daily charts
- support is at 8000 below which monthly trend can turn down
- watch for triangle development in hourly charts (separate post on this)
- possible inverted H&S though a weak one as right shoulder is bigger than left!
May 12, 2015
Hot stocks and charts
LAST updated: 12-MAY-2015
- These charts are for educational purposes only.
- This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
- Follow the trend... if stock is at 20 days high, trend is up and vice versa.
- Golden stoploss: min 10% or 20 days low (long position).
- Never risk more than 1% of your capital on any trade.
- All charts are provided by icharts.in
CAIRN INDIA
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