An excellent breakout on monthly charts. Trend is up and up.... 7200 next target? Comments...
March 31, 2014
Market outlook
Second day of hanging man.... this is now a case where selling is happening but bulls are still managing to take markets up.
If long, SL would be around 6640 spot. Swing trade reversal level is 6400.
Incidentally VIX was up by 16% today. This has the effect of making options expensive.
Option writing points to support at 6400... till option writers start writing calls, assume the trend is up.
If long, SL would be around 6640 spot. Swing trade reversal level is 6400.
Incidentally VIX was up by 16% today. This has the effect of making options expensive.
Option writing points to support at 6400... till option writers start writing calls, assume the trend is up.
March 28, 2014
Intraday analysis
Markets were initially rangebound between 6690 and 6720F. By one o'clock, it was clear that chances of it breaking day's low was slim.
Weekend update
On daily charts, markets closed near the highs and also the week's highs... this is a bullish sign. On the other hand, there is probable hanging man (bearish).
March 27, 2014
March 26, 2014
Market outlook
Trend is up with support at 6400 levels.
APRIL series option writing clues point to support at 6500 and resistance at 6700 levels.
APRIL series option writing clues point to support at 6500 and resistance at 6700 levels.
Intraday analysis
We had a buy signal as shown in the first box... trailing stoploss got hit thereafter and trade was closed at break even.
March 25, 2014
March 24, 2014
Market outlook
NIFTY makes and closes at a new high. The rally was led by bank stocks and index heavyweights. Advance decline was negative which means that inspite of markets closing at a new high, most stocks actually closed in the red.
Intraday analysis
A 30-40 point move in first 15 minutes is a strong move and sets the bias for the day. Crossover above 6580F was the first buy signal.
March 21, 2014
Weekly update
NIFTY continues to trade in a range... most probably we are seeing formation of a diametric (diamond shaped). If true, we are towards the end stage of this and markets should give a break out of this range.
March 20, 2014
Market outlook
A good selloff which kept getting resisted at every minor level. Most probably this will lead to a more rangebound trading or formation of a diametric followed by a breakout/ breakdown.
Intraday analysis
Today was a confusing day as markets kept breaking day's high/ lows only to reverse. Fortunately the reversals were kinda warned of in candlesticks.
March 19, 2014
Market outlook
Trend is up with support at 6400 levels... breakout level is 6570 spot corresponding to roughly 22000 on sensex.
Intraday analysis
Initial bias was weak as the first 5 min bar opened gapup but closed near the low.
March 18, 2014
Market outlook
We now have evidence of selling and therefore resistance at 6560 levels. In futures, this level corresponds to 6600. Of course, part of the reason is the psychological resistance perceived at sensex (22000).
Intraday analysis
Initial bias was bullish though it was a difficult to take a long position as markets in recent past were unable to cross 6600.
March 17, 2014
March 14, 2014
Weekly update
NIFTY closed above 6500... close was near weekly open. Support at 6400 is still holding though going by option data, we are seeing a cut in 6400 put and some increase in 6600 call levels.
Intraday analysis
Initial bias was bearish... the bullish close of the first bar did not lead to any further buying and the candlestick patterns in the first box set the stage for a short trade.
March 13, 2014
Market outlook
Despite initial bias being bullish, markets close at day's low... now uptrend is in doubt and will be confirmed if recent supports break.
Intraday analysis
First signal was a buy around 10.25 when markets formed a big bar and closed above day's high (first arrow).
March 12, 2014
Expect profit booking below 6480 spot else trend up
Withing the range of the breakout candle, we are witnessing sideways trading such that range formed in last 2 days was still holding today. This level is 6480 spot and so expect profit booking below 6480 spot.
Intraday analysis
Initial bias was down... however as mentioned in this post, correction would start only on break of 6520F.
March 11, 2014
March 10, 2014
GOLD USD chart
GOLD has been in uptrend from USD 1240 levels. Of late, the rally is stalling and this is accompanied by negative divergence on RSI.
Important levels to watch are USD 1320 - 1360. If GOLD closes below 1320, it will mean exit of long position. Breakout above USD 1360 will imply further upsides with SL at 1320.
Important levels to watch are USD 1320 - 1360. If GOLD closes below 1320, it will mean exit of long position. Breakout above USD 1360 will imply further upsides with SL at 1320.
Market outlook
Broader trend is up but the strong rally is expected to fizzle out shortly followed by a correction.
Advance decline was flat even as VIX jumped by 6%.
Advance decline was flat even as VIX jumped by 6%.
Intraday analysis
Initial bias was neutral with support formed at 6520 F and resistance at 6570 F (first 5 min bar).
March 8, 2014
March 7, 2014
Intraday analysis
Initial bias was bullish. Crossover above initial range (formed by 10am) gave first buy signal.
Weekend update
NIFTY gains 2% today and 4.5% on weekly basis. A highest closing was also achieved (lifetime high/ 52 week high etc).
Advance decline was flat (not a good sign) so while the nifty rallied, other stocks sold off. Infact, highest gains were in banks and nifty stocks while midcaps were practically flat.
Advance decline was flat (not a good sign) so while the nifty rallied, other stocks sold off. Infact, highest gains were in banks and nifty stocks while midcaps were practically flat.
March 6, 2014
Intraday analysis
First bar was a sell on open but this was a relatively small. There was no follow through selling and markets traded in a small range for 3 hours between 6360-6380F.
March 5, 2014
Intraday analysis
First bar of the day pointed to a selling on gapup. There was a short trade (first arrow) which was avoidable in the sense that broader trend was up and an anti-trend was likely to fail.
March 4, 2014
Market outlook
Markets close above recent swing high (minor one). While I was expecting a retest of 6100, this was not to be.
Intraday analysis
I have not shown first bar of the day as it had a low of 5620F and including this would have distorted the chart substantially.
March 3, 2014
Market outlook
Possible formation of a top or swing high... this implies resistance at 6300 levels and a possible correction to 6100 levels. So not much of a deep correction.
Intraday analysis
NIFTY opened in previous day's range (6265 - 6295 F). A short opportunity developed in the boxed region as nifty traded in a small range for a very long time and also formed candlesticks with upper tails. It was also very clear that short positions were getting built up at any intraday bounce at these levels.
March 2, 2014
NIFTY and RSI charts
On daily charts, nifty is nearing previous resistance levels though some more upmove cannot be ruled out.
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